Ruben Safrastyan: “It is too early to speak about Assad’s replacement by the Muslim Brotherhood”

Interview by David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to VK

The Head of the Oriental Studies Institute of the Armenian Academy of Sciences, Professor Ruben Safrastyan, told VK about the reasons for the Syrian crisis, the Iranian and Kurdish factors in further developments in the Middle East and the fate of Syrian Armenians.

-          Many Armenians have already left Syria. Do you see a threat of elimination of the Armenian diaspora in Syria?

-          According to reports coming from Syria, the situation around the Armenian diaspora is difficult there. People are becoming victims of the military operations taking place in the country. There is information on the deaths of Armenians. It is no surprise that people prefer to leave Armenia. According to official sources, more than 2 thousand people have already returned. The number of Armenians coming from Syria will increase, but there are no reasons for a mass exodus of Armenians from Syria. For decades the Armenian diaspora has been living in Syria in peace and prosperity. Now Armenians are under constant danger. And until this danger disappears, the Armenians who have left won’t come back to Syria.

-          After withdrawal of government troops, Syrian Kurds living in the northern-west of the country took control of the border with Turkey and several northern provinces of Syria. Considering the nervous reaction of Ankara, the withdrawal of Syrian troops was deliberate…

-          I think this was another tactical step by President Assad, who opened the Syrian border with Iraq and Turkey to enable him to use the Kurdish card in the struggle against Turkey. On the other hand, the Kurdish organizations acting on the territory of Syria strive for autonomy within Syria, but in the future they might strive for independence. The number of Kurds is not so big, about 1.5 million, i.e. less than 10% of the Syrian population. They have close relations with Iraqi Kurdistan, headed by Barzani. As for the Turkish concerns expressed by Premier Recep Erdogan, they are reasonable. A second Kurdish autonomy is a serious threat to Turkey. At the same time, militants of the Kurdistan Workers Party fighting Turkey are active in Syria. The example of Iraqi Kurdistan, where bases of the PKK are situated, proves that after withdrawal of Syrian troops from the Turkish-Syrian border the militants of the PKK will have the opportunity to penetrate Turkey from Syria without any obstacles.

-          But the PKK was active on the territory of Alawi Syria before the actual opening of the borders…

-          It had bases in Syria before. But Turkey made a reckless step in standing against Assad. Ankara’s policy doesn’t rely on any current geopolitical or simply political realities. An attempt to boost its regional influence at such a time is reckless. It led to an improvement of the Kurdish factor.

-          Why is the replacement of the predictable Assad by unpredictable Islamists beneficial for the West?

-          First of all, the anti-Assad position of the USA is based on geopolitical aspects. An Alawi and Shia-dominated Syria provided an independent policy based on cooperation with Shia Iran and Russia to some extent. Therefore, overthrowing Assad will lead to a weakening of Iran’s positions in the Middle East, as well as Russia’s positions. This is one of the main aims of American foreign policy. At the same time, the US is seriously trying to build relations with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Syria. But it is too early to speak about the replacement of Assad by the Muslim Brotherhood. The information war around Syria should be taken into consideration, as many events are exaggerated artificially. Assad manages to maintain the government structure and control over the army. It is obvious that the West and some Arab countries won’t have a legitimate right to interfere in Syrian affairs. The riots in Syria have internal economic reasons of course. And if the regime of Assad falls, the political structure of post-Assad Syria will include the Muslim Brotherhood and representatives of the pro-Western Syrian intelligentsia living in the West today.

-          Do you think the US strives to overthrow Assad as part of a chain leading to the overthrow of the Ayatollahs’ in Iran?

-          The US supports the rebels in destabilizing the situation in Syria because they strive to eliminate the Ayatollah’s power in Iran. Today the US, Israel, and some Arab countries are providing a policy of isolating Iran. Meanwhile, the intelligence services of Israel and the US have no evidence that Iran is enriching uranium for military purposes. Overthrowing the Syrian government will play a big role in isolating Iran.