Rasim Musabekov: «Armenia is impelled to leave the occupied Azerbaijani territories»

The latest events in the South Caucasian region, the visit of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to the South Caucasian states’ capitals in particular, triggered intense interest among experts. Various issues concerning the state of affairs in the region are widely discussed. One of the most vital questions among these is the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Rasim Musabekov, an independent expert, speaks about some of the prospects in an interview exclusively for “Vestnik Kavkaza”.

-In his latest statement, the Azerbaijani President defined several necessary steps for the settlement of the conflict, and the liberation of five districts is supposed to be the first of them. Could this project be carried out, in your opinion?

-The liberation of the occupied Azerbaijani regions is the subject of negotiations. This step is stipulated by the Madrid convention. Different projects were discussed, some of them implying that five regions would be liberated at first and then the other two, some – that these five regions would be divided into smaller zones. But all projects put the withdrawal of Armenian troops from Azerbaijani territories at the top of the list.

-In your media statements you seem to be sceptical about the signing of a peace treaty any time soon. What’s the reason for that?

-At the beginning of the year, the Sochi summit led the problem to a certain conclusion by preparing a document setting out preliminary peace conditions. The Armenian side required two weeks to formulate its opinion. A positive reaction was mostly expected and even the treaty being signed before the end of the year seemed quite possible. Nevertheless, the process has come to a dead end, so I’m not optimistic about its sudden reanimation. There are, however, some chances that depend on will of the world community: if Russia, the USA and France urged Armenia to free the occupied territories and to follow the decisions of the United Nations Security Council, Armenia would have to comply, as it is not strong enough to face off not only Azerbaijan, but also the entire world community.

-Did the visit of Hillary Clinton clarify the situation in this regard?

-But that’s not the point! Azerbaijan will judge the situation by the deeds, not the words of the USA, Russia and France. It’s not about evacuating the population of Nagorno-Karabakh, what is at issue is fulfilment of the UN Security Council resolution. Armenia has no grounds for retaining the Azerbaijani territories. As for the security concerns – they will be provided by the larger states.

-How do you think the USA can force Yerevan to comply with the decisions of the UNSC?

-I doubt that Hillary Clinton promised to exert pressure on the Armenian side during her visit to Baku. But she made it clear that it’s time to follow the Madrid principles and to free the occupied territories. It's hard now to tell what will come out of it. Maybe Armenia will agree and pressure won’t be necessary. Maybe the USA will use the carrot instead of the stick and Armenia will receive some credits and donations for its economy. The most important thing for Azerbaijan would be if the international community impelled Armenia to give up the territories without hostilities.