David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
The director of the Institute of Philosophy, Sociology and Law of the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia, Gevorg Poghosyan, talks about trends in public opinion in Armenia and about presidential elections scheduled for February 18 in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza.
- When in Armenia people talk about the upcoming presidential elections, they always imply that the current President, Serzh Sargsyan, will win. On what is this confidence based?
- The May parliamentary elections have become a certain indicator for the upcoming February presidential elections in Armenia. They have demonstrated the firmness of the position of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA). Maintaining its position, the Republicans have shown the possibilities that have been and will be at their disposal in the upcoming presidential election. The Republican party will use all resources at its disposal in order to achieve the victory of Serzh Sargsyan. Even today, the victory of the incumbent president is not in doubt. Among other things, this is demonstrated by the results of sociological polls. Our last poll conducted together with Gallup International Association shows that 49% of respondents are ready to vote for the current president. Given the withdrawal from the struggle of the leader of "Prosperous Armenia", Gagik Tsarukyan, and of the first president of Armenia, Levon Ter-Petrossian, Sargsyan will win already in the first round. In my view, in reality the current president is supported not only by 49% of our citizens but more. Too many people in Armenia are tied and integrated into the power structure. The power pyramid has a direct relation to these people, they realize that if the chief executive changes in a short time the wave will also reach those who are ministers, heads of commissions, heads of village administrations ... In this case, in my opinion, the non-participation of the Armenian National Congress, of the Prosperous Armenia party and of Dashnaktsutyun in the upcoming election is not at all a boycott. However, their actions will only increase the frustration of society. The practice of the past 20 years shows that Armenian voters are traditionally more active in presidential elections than in parliamentary elections. The difference is in the range of 5-10%. Therefore, voter turnout will be high in February, despite the popular belief that there is no alternative and that there is a lack of competitiveness in the upcoming elections.
- Many people argue that the competition will be between the other candidates, but not between them and Sargsyan. Do you agree?
- Partially. After all, Raffi Hovannisian, Bagratyan and Paruyr Hayrikyan offer a very interesting format of competition, namely that they have something to say to society, they have great experience in state work. These people come with ideas, concepts, with their scripts. In fact, they are already talking and will talk more. I think it will be a battle of ideas, not resources. This will create an interesting platform for discussion, which will be a pain in the neck to the authorities. Republicans need to find ways to withstand this ideological attack. The candidates have already come out with interesting proposals regarding the economy, the political structure, changes related to human rights and freedom, democratization. These people take to the stage to talk more about their ideas and discuss them, to criticize, to agree... They change the dimension of the struggle, moving it from resources to ideology. Perhaps, if he wins, the current president will use the ideas of its competitors. Traditionally, during his second term a president acts more decisively, makes decisions that are not very popular, knowing that there will be no third term. Given also that this time Sargsyan will have a relatively easy victory, in the second term he will not depend on many of the people on whom he depended in the first term, first of all, on the oligarchs. Accordingly, it is a direct opportunity for Sargsyan to act more freely, adopting decisions which will not be favored by the oligarchs but will be based on the interests of ordinary citizens. He will simply be more free during the second term of his presidency. And these are the positive factors that cannot be ignored.
- Please describe an average Armenian voter...
- In Armenia there is an authoritarian society, and the power is authoritarian. Yes, we have democratic mechanisms in the foundation, we have democratic institutions, but in reality an authoritarian government functions in our country. The problem is that in Armenia even the business sector is highly dependent on the state, as the business and government structures have merged. And Armenia is not the only country like that, you can see the same thing in Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. In these countries, it has already become a tradition for an incumbent president to win with 80% or 90% of the vote. And the authoritarian Armenian society, at least for the moment, is not ready to shake off this authoritarianism. The society is heterogeneous, it consists of various social strata. Unfortunately, over the last 20 years our society has greatly weakened as a result of migration, since first of all the economically-active population is leaving the country. As a result, today in Armenia there are about half a million pensioners, about 600 thousand housewives and the same number of children. And all these people are dependent, because they accept help from the state. To my great regret, the re-election of Serzh Sargsyan will only facilitate further emigration, which traditionally increases after every election in Armenia. Too many give up on our country, waiting in vain for a change and the victory of their candidate.
- But a convincing victory in the elections ahead of Sargsyan will inevitably once again cast doubts ontheir legitimacy among the international community.
- Indeed, victory by a wide margin from one's competitors presents in itself a great risk, but on the other hand the leaders of the post-Soviet states have never been afraid of pressure from the international community. And after all, I do not think that the current president will enlist an unbelievable support of voters, for example, of 80%. That means that there will not be such a problem in the case of Armenia,. I think that this time there will be much less fraud, the use of administrative resources and the distribution of bribes given the lack of a need to bribe voters. If the top authorities are convinced that they will receive 50% plus one vote, then there will be no large-scale application of additional administrative or financial resources. The fact that actually already before the presidential elections the opposition had suffered a complete defeat by refusing to participate in the presidential race is the best proof of this. Such an attitude of the three leading forces that are regarded as the opposition in Armenia was surprising and unexpected. Indeed, until recently they have all demonstrated full commitment to go through with the fight against the ruling authorities. However, the PA is the second most influential political force in the parliament and in the country. And such a powerful political force cannot be forgotten, as previously happened with other political parties. This means that after the results of the presidential election are known, the political struggle in the parliament is hardly likely to end and will continue with renewed vigour. The members of Prosperous Armenia, of the ANC and of Dashnaktsutyun, having withdrawn from an unreasonable race in the presidential elections, will not become less active in the parliament. Moreover, they can make higher demands to the authorities, especially considering that for the first time in the contemporary history of Armenia the opposition has refused to participate in the presidential elections, thereby recognizing its defeat.
