Eight years ago in Genaldon pass the five km ice-flow Kolka took 125 lives. Doctor of Geological and Mineralogical Sciences, professor, honoured worker of science and technology of South Ossetia, chief scientist of the Institute of geology and rational natural resources, Mikhail Berger commented on the tragedy and its consequences.
Mr. Berger, was the tragedy of 2002 expected? Was it possible if not prevent to smooth its consequences?
The tragedy of 2002 was absolutely unexpected. Eight years ago the science couldn't tell the peculiarities of the coming tragedy, warn people and take measures on smoothing its consequences. Such peculiarities are called warning signals before tragedies. However, it was said there were no any warning signals in 2002. Today we can see there were a lot of clear signals before the tragedy. The main reason of unexpectedness of the tragedy was insignificant development of these sphere of science. Today we hope similar tragedies won't be unexpected in the future. In 2007-2008 I published a book on the tragedy of 2002 in Moscow; it tells about methods and criteria of forecasting such phenomena days and even weeks ahead.
Had similar tragedies taken place before? Is there any analogy with other ice-flows?
Kolka ice-flow saw many similar phenomena in its history. People, lived there, knew about them. That is why they found there settlements high above the bottomland of Genaldon valley. We have data only about two of such tragedies: in 1752 and 1902. The tragedy of 1902 developed in two stages (on the 3rd and 6th July). However, they were much weaker than in 2002. The tragedy of 1752 was probably as huge as of 2002, but it is poorly described.
As for analogy with other ice-flows, it is a difficult question. Unlike Kolka other ice-flows were not studied well. There are no reliable reports on their conditions before the tragedy and after it. Almost all conclusions about tragedies are based on phenomena took place off ice-flows. Considering these criteria, the tragedy of 2002 is similar to the events in the Uaskaran mountain (Peru) in 1962 and 1970, the Ararat mountain in 1840, Kazbek ice-flows of Devdorak and Abano, ice-flows of the Elbrus, in the Cascade Range in the USA and in some other mountain regions.
It was said that noise effects of the shooting group of Sergey Bodrov caused the tragedy. Can this version be true?
The tragedy of 2002 was a natural phenomenon. People couldn't cause it anyhow, it is obvious. The preliminary stage began two months before the 20 of October, thus long before the start of shooting by Bodrov. In July there were many prolonged rock fall on Kolka ice-flow, a lot of cracks in the ice-flow, low water level in the Genaldon river and other signs were evidences of the preliminary stage. Thus, noise or any other effects of the shooting group of Bodrov couldn't be a reason for this natural tragedy.
What are the conditions of this region today? What are your forecasts?
Today we can see stable regeneration of the ice-flow after the tragedy, filling of the glacier bed and melting of remained pieces of ice. Considering current conditions, a new tragedy similar to that of 2002 is impossible. However, the further development of the ice-flow may lead to such a tragedy 50 years later. It doesn't mean that it necessarily will take place 50 years later. It depends not on the external but on the inner processes. Even though volcanic processes in the Kazbek-Dzhimarai region stopped many centuries ago, postvolcanic process still continue and will continue for hundreds of thousand years. These processes are the main reasons of the Kolka tragedies. Through recent 250 years these tragedies took place every 150 (1752-1902) and 100 years (1902-2002). Thus, the next similar tragedy may happen not earlier than the late XXI century.
Does the Kolka threaten the nearby settlements, for example, Gizel?
Even though the consequences of the tragedy of 2002 were dramatic, Gizel didn't suffer at all. That is why considering its current boundaries the next tragedy doesn't threaten Gizel and its residents. However, in several km up the pass the danger area begins.
Interviewd by Tmara Buntury. Vladikavkaz. Exclusively to VK
