Can Trump help to liberate Karabakh?

The election of Donald Trump may assist Azerbaijan in the de-occupation of the Nagorno-Karabakh, the former Director of Governmental Relations and Public Affairs for the American Jewish Committee, based in Los Angeles, political observer Jason Katz, wrote in his article 'Trump and Armenia’s Occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh', published in The American Thinker.

The author recalled that during the election, Armenian-American organizations waged a spiteful campaign against Trump, with continuous online attacks and the copious spread of misinformation. Note the defeat of ardently pro-Armenian and anti-Trump Republican Senator Mark Kirk, a co-chair of the Armenian Caucus, Congressman Bob Dold of Illinois, or of the Nevada Senate hopeful Joe Heck in Nevada. 

"President-elect Trump, owing nothing to the Armenian-American lobby, yet on record as having positive views vis a vis Azerbaijan, may take his characteristically pragmatic, national interest-based approach to Nagorno-Karabakh and move the conflict to finality," Katz wrote.

The author stressed that Azerbaijan has been a steadfast strategic partner of the US since its independence and represents exactly the kind of a secular, pragmatic, and modern partner America needs. 

Azerbaijan has generally tacked toward the West, although, as with so many nations, some wavering occurred during the current US administration. However, Azerbaijan has continued building oil and gas pipelines that flow to Europe and Western markets. In addition, Azerbaijan continues to support the US in international fora and has become a close and, some may say, indispensable ally of Tel-Aviv.

Katz notes that although much will be on the new president’s plate, Trump should strongly consider putting his weight behind solving this longstanding conflict that promises to cause his administration significant issues if not addressed - lest we forget the violent flare-up of hostilities last April. Another such conflagration promises to escalate into a region war.

The Deputy Director General of the Trend information agency, political commentator Arzu Nagiyev, speaking to Vestnik Kavkaza, noted that despite signs of Trump's willingness to maintain contacts with Azerbaijan, in fact it is unlikely that anything will change in Washington's policy on the Caucasus. "Presidential candidate Trump and President Trump are different things. I think that after Trump's inauguration the US will continue to pursue the same policy in the South Caucasus. Of course, the business communication between Trump's structures and Azerbaijan is a positive thing, but it does not mean that the US would be able to instantly change its views under the influence of one man," he noted.

At the same time, hopes for positive developments in the US policy on the South Caucasus remain. "Note that there will be new the US co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group. And its French representative also changed. It is important because a lot depends on whether a particular authorized diplomat knows what is happening in the region. Nevertheless, do not forget that to a greater extent it will depend on a new Secretary of State and his team," Arzu Nagiyev stressed.

The expert recalled that during the campaign Donald Trump gave priority to security and the fight against international terrorism. "Of course, the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is one of the threats in the South Caucasus. If the conflict is resolved, the US side and other nations will be able to participate in all the geopolitical and macroeconomic projects in the Caucasus without any risks. Therefore, I think that Trump will take advantage of it," the Deputy Director General of the Trend information agency expects.