As of 10:10 am (MSK), the dollar exchange rate was worth only 57.9625 rubles at the morning trading session at the Moscow Exchange. For the last time the ruble exchange rate was so high in summer 2015. The euro was worth 61.32 rubles.
Now the dollar increased a little to 58.01 rubles and the euro - to 61.74 rubles.
The further strengthening of the ruble is due to the growing interest of investors in Russian assets within the carry trade: they are attracted by the difference between the interest rates of debt instruments at a moderately tight monetary policy of the Russian Central Bank and a relatively soft monetary policy of regulators in developed economies. In this regard, Russia is currently experiencing the inflow of currency from speculators.
The associate professor of the department of finance, money circulation and credit of RANEPA, Maxim Safonov, speaking to Vestnik Kavkaza, drew attention to other causes of the ruble's appreciation. "Trading sessions are linked not only to linear factors, such as oil quotations, but also to non-linear, such as sales volumes, seasons, financing and refinancing rates, the total price dynamics. In this regard, this strengthening is not dramatic," he believes.
Speaking about whether one should invest in dollars on the background of such a decline of the dollar, the expert stressed that it depends on whether a person is professional. "If it's not your job, then you should not start to buy dollars now. In the near future, there will be only slight fluctuations of the ruble, because neither the Finance Ministry nor the Central Bank are interested in it. Most likely, the dollar exchange rate will fluctuate around the figure of 60 rubles," Maxim Safonov predicts.
The head of the finance, monetary circulation and credit department at RANEPA, Alexander Khandruev, stressed that currently the ruble exchange rate has no direct relation to the fluctuations in oil prices. "In total, the exchange rate is determined by the volume of supply and demand on the foreign exchange market, if there is no regulation by means of interventions. If today there were more requests to buy or sell dollars, the rate will increase or decline, if no one interferes. The oil price could drop to $10, but if more requests to buy rubles than sell, the course will be strengthened," he said.
The absence of intervention by the Russian Central Bank and Ministry of Finance at such a low dollar exchange rate can be explained. "Someone needs a cheap currency - either foreigners to buy higher-yielding Russian securities, or our companies and banks to repay its current liabilities. That is why there are no transactions under the budget rule. Now we are now unable to refinance foreign debts, their repayment requires cheap dollars," Alexander Khandruev concluded.
