Russia does not plan to increase gas production in 2018, freezing it at the level of 2017, Russian Minister of Energy Alexander Novak said, adding that everything will depend on the weather conditions.
"As for gas, we focus on the production level of 2017. Everything will depend on the weather situation. If there is a warmer autumn, then the level will be lower - between the levels of 2016 and 2017. In 2017, as you know, we had the highest level of production of all time - 691.1 bln cubic meters," Novak said.
"The domestic market will stay about the same - 468 bln, we are targeting exports at 210-220 bln," TASS cited the minister as saying.
In 2017, gas exports to CIS and non-CIS countries through the gas transportation system of Russia, according to the Russian Energy Ministry, rose by 7.7% to 227 bln cubic meters of gas, including 196.1 bln cubic meters for non-CIS countries, and 31 bln cubic meters for the CIS countries.
The executive vice-president of NewTech Services, professor of the Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas, Valery Bessel, speaking with a correspondent of Vestnik Kavkaza, noted that the key problem of the modern Russian gas industry is that many domestic consumers do not pay for gas. "Gas is extracted to the extent that it is planned to be consumed in the domestic market and sold to the external one. Many regions do not pay, which is why Gazprom has huge amount of accounts receivable. They don't cut off gas, because it is believed that the company should somehow withdraw this receivable, but it does not bother anyone in the regions, and the state inscribes it into future investments as an asset," he pointed out.
There is currently no opportunity to export more gas than in previous years. "The Power of Siberia pipeline is not yet ready, all gas export is focused on Europe and partly on the Asia-Pacific region, with the only operating liquefied natural gas plant Sakhalin-2. The Turkish Stream and Nord Stream-2 projects are being implemented, which are necessary to create alternative to Ukraine transit corridors," Valery Bessel explained.
According to he expert, the increase in gas production can be expected by 2020-2021. "Then the Yamal LNG and Baltic LNG projects will be entered into full operational capacity, the Nord Stream-2, the Turkish Stream and the Siberian Power pipelines will also be put into operation, which means that gas exports will grow, including to China. The European vector will remain the key for us, especially since Turkey and Germany are very interested in the transit of our gas. For example, Germany receives gas at $300 per thousand cubic meters, and for German consumers it costs $1000 per thousand cubic meters," professor of the Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas concluded.
A leading analyst of the National Energy Security Fund, a lecturer at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Igor Yushkov, in turn, noted that weather may change forecasts of Gazprom and the Ministry of Energy. "Gas consumption depends on climate and weather, the final volumes of production and consumption are determined by the heating season. I think giving this forecast Novak believes that the overall economic performance in the country is gradually improving, but at an insignificant rate. As our economy remains at the same level, gas consumption will also be the same," he said.
"In the foreign market, one should expect a high demand for Russian gas. In 2016-2017, Europe had rather cold and long winters, and Europeans bought a lot of Russian gas. By the end of 2018 they will continue to buy large volumes of Russian gas to pump them in storage to prepare for the next winter," Igor Yushkov added.
Gas prices will also not grow. "There is quite strong regulation of our domestic market, the population receives gas at tariffs that cannot be changed by Gazprom. On the foreign markets everything depends on oil prices, and so far we see that oil is trading at $70 per barrel, probably, it will be this way for quite a long time, which means that there will be no special changes in the prices of export gas," the leading analyst of the National Energy Security Fund summarized.
