Servant of the People party representative, comic actor Volodymyr Zelenskiy has strengthened his lead in Ukraine’s presidential election race, according to an opinion poll published today.
But support for the 41-year-old remains far below the level need to secure outright victory in the March 31 ballot, and most voters still do not expect him to become president, the Kiev-based research body KIIS showed.
The poll showed Zelenskiy on 32.1% of votes, with incumbent Petro Poroshenko second on 17.1% and opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko third on 12.5%. The next are representative of the Opposition Platform - For Life alliance Yuriy Boyko with 10.4% and leader of the Civic Position party Anatoliy Hrytsenko with %6.9.
A total of 39 candidates have registered for the election. If no candidate wins 50% of the votes cast, the top two will face each other in a run-off on April 21.
KIIS interviewed 2,004 voters in 126 Ukrainian settlements, from March 14 to March 22. The poll’s margin of error is no more than 2%.
The deputy dean of the Faculty of Global Economics and International Affairs of the Higher School of Economics of the National Research University, Andrei Suzdaltsev, speaking with the correspondent of Vestnik Kavkaza, noted that Zelenskiy personifies the discontent of the Ukrainian electorate with the political system and the political game rules. “The protest electorate supports him now, which, most likely, will not come to the polling stations or will vote differently. Now these people speak in such a way as to give a signal to the authorities that they are not satisfied with the state of affairs in the country. Therefore, we must be very careful, giving predictions for the second round and Zelensky’s victory," he said in the first place.
"In addition, we must not forget that there is one oligarch behind Zelensky and Tymoshenko — Kolomoisky. You have to understand that this election is a clash of oligarchs, in which Poroshenko is the largest player. Therefore, all current statistics can easily be refuted at the election day. Mass frauds are also possible, given that Kiev is very selective in choosing international observers, in particular, Russian observers were not allowed. In general, anything is possible in Ukraine," Andrei Suzdaltsev warned.
Deputy director of the Institute of the CIS Vladimir Zharikhin also considers Zelenskiy's high rating as quite understandable. "First, old professional politicians have discredited themselves so much, that people are looking for someone else. Second, in many respects the vote for Zelensky is a vote against all. And, finally, to a certain extent, some support Zelensky just 'for fun'," the expert explained.
"But I would not completely trust the results of these sociological studies, because Zelensky’s electorate has an important feature - there is a large percentage of young people, which don’t like to go to the polls," the deputy director of the Institute of the CIS warned.
In addition, Vladimir Zharikhin added that even if Zelensky really wins, Kiev, or rather Washington, would hardly allow him to become president. "I do not rule out that there will be large-scale frauds. The election law was not accidentally changed, and representatives of candidates are members of election commissions, and among a number of marginal candidates there are many who became candidates at the request of Petro Poroshenko. In addition, the census hasn't been held for a very long time, which means that many voters on official lists are dead souls. Also, a very significant number of Ukrainian citizens are abroad for work," Vladimir Zharikhin concluded.
