Alexander Shokhin, President of the Russian Union of Manufacturers and Businessmen, believes that the second wave of recession will be hard and long for Russia and needs preliminary measures, such as a reduction of expenses and formation of strict budget rules. The statement was made at the Saint-Petersburg International Economic Forum 2012, RIA Novosti reports.
There are new factors that were not a problem in 2008. There should be no expectations for high oil prices; the US is transforming into an exporter using its shale gas. It may supply even Europe with gas.
Sberbank head German Gref said that anti-crisis instruments are being prepared. Companies were recommended to compose alternate business plans. The FRS passed a decision that demonstrates the unfavourable situation in the US and the world.
Gref is optimistic about the national currency. The currency rate will be back to 30 rubles per dollar. Russia has high gold and currency reserves.
The chances of dollar price at 38 or 28 rubles is 50/50. No expert may predict oil prices. Gref emphasized that the policy of the Central Bank and the Finances Ministry is professional and correct.
Russian Vice Premier Igor Shuvalov said today that state expenses may increase. The finances minister continues the course of former Minister Alexey Kudrin, who did not want increase of state expenses in the near future. Studies of advanced technologies and missile construction need financing.
Shuvalov emphasized that there should be no expectations of oil prices at $115 per barrel (as set in the 2012 budget) when the price is dropping to $95 per barrel. United Russia will have problems taking harsh measures, but the parliament is ready, Shuvalov says.
August contracts for WTI dropped below $80 per barrel, a minimum since October 2011. Futures dropped in price by 1.9% to $79.92 per barrel. The WTI oil price has dropped by 27% since its peak this year.
Shuvalov warned that the government would need consolidation of budget, should oil prices drop below $90 per barrel.
