Alexey Kudrin, the head of the Civil Initiatives Committee, has noted that the country is switching to a two-digit inflation level. According to the ex-minister for finance, the country's economy has entered the crisis absolutely unprepared.
"Today, I can say that we have have entered, or are entering, a real economic crisis, a full-fledged economic crisis. Next year, we will fully experience it, if the oil price totals $80, eventually, if oil prices return to the level, the pace, the reduction of growth will total 2% or more. If the price for oil will be $60, the growth rate, the GDP that is, will drop by 4% or more. It is a serious challenge for the economy, for different sectors. For the first time since 2000, during the rule of Putin and Medvedev, the real income of the population will drop, it will happen next year.
The recession level is from 2% to 4-5%, it will be evaluated according to inflation, primarily with the dropping GDP, because the growth of wages and other income will be limited, incomes of the budget of Russian regions supporting social programs will be limited. Imports will drop by about 40% in Russia next year. Investment imports will suffer even greater risks: it is equipment, materials, construction materials, for investment objects, for construction sites, for industrial facilities. Since the ruble prices are set for the services, the equipment, the goods, it would hardly be supportable by the economy of the projects started. That is why a fall in this import sector should be expected much greater. It will slow down modernization in Russia. In other words, we will understand that access to modern technologies, equipment, modernization will be more complicated, times [more complicated], in terms of primarily prices for Russia, for Russian enterprises, the new opportunities. Thus, it will slow down development of the Russian economy. It cannot be fully replaced by national industry, considering the lack of analogues in many cases, lack of modern technologies in such scale for different sectors. One country cannot create a full range of technological potential.
Inflation next year will total 12-15%. We are switching to two-digit inflation. Consequently, it may drop because of the effect of passing devaluation to prices, it will gradually dwindle in accordance with stabilization of the market and the structure of the economy that will be in the context of corresponding prices. The role of the Russian economy in the world [economy] will be reduced significantly, because the level of devaluation of the GDP volume of Russia in dollars according to the ruble rate. In terms of the parity of the consumer potential, the share will drop even less. Russia will get a reduction of its rating and will switch to a "trashy" rating next year. Besides, the volume of obligations accumulated by Russian companies in dollars and rubles due to the breakdown in the economy and reciprocal nonpayments, the payment discipline will exacerbate greatly in the period of the transition to the crisis and the peak of the crisis. We will see a series of defaults, including medium-sized and large enterprises. I hope that it will not concern banks, because banks will be more protected, it will only affect medium-sized and small banks.
In this regard, we will see all the signs of a crisis. I can say almost certainly today that 2016 will be a year of GDP drop in the Russian economy.
