Today the final trading of this year opened on the Moscow currency exchange. According to its results, Russian citizens will learn the rate of the dollar with which they will live for the first two weeks of next year.
Vestnik Kavkaza talked to a leading researcher of the Institute of Applied Economic Research RANHiGS, Alexander Abramov, and assistant professor of stock markets and financial engineering of RANHiGS, Basil Yakimkinym, about how the ruble will do next year, as well as how Russian citizens should behave in the current situation.
According to Alexander Abramov, for the next quarter the authorities will try to keep the rate in the area of 55-56 rubles to the dollar.
"It would be a favorable combination of circumstances. There is a number of factors that will influence this. The first is how synchronously the Central Bank, the Ministry of Finance and exporters of foreign exchange earnings will work. Secondly, how far the Bank of Russia will be able to limit the amount of refinancing of the banking system. If it is possible to keep some balance, it seems to me that the best option would be a dollar amount in the corridor of 55-60 rubles," the expert said, explaining that to make any predictions is difficult to do for the next few months for various reasons.”
In his turn, Vasily Yakimkin expressed the view that next year the market will be very volatile.
"The main reason, which puts pressure on the ruble, is lower oil prices. And it is not resolved. It is also that the national currency is negatively affected by fears of a possible recession in Russia, plus other problems associated with structural processes in the Russian economy. Therefore, the ruble will remain under pressure and will continue to decline gradually," he said.
The expert noted that in the first three months of 2015 the ruble may show resistance, because external debt payments in Russian corporations will be minimal. "In January, February and March large payments are expected, so in general, these three months will be normal. However, the New Year holidays are coming, and according to the forecast until January 12, we are waiting for the increased volatility of the ruble, because Exchange stocks will still be working, volumes are small, and for this reason the ruble will move back and forth. But in general, the situation is such that the ruble will gradually lose ground as oil will become cheaper. This is the main point," Yakimkin said.
