Yevgeny Minchenko, Director of the International Institute for Political Expertise, told Vestnik Kavkaza that Russia's recognition of elections in Abkhazia and South Ossetia was a key moment in 2011. Abkhazia has more pluralism than South Ossetia, he believes. The elections demonstrate that the two states are more or less independent.
Concerning the Caucasus as a whole, Yevgeny Minchenko said that there has been no adequate response to the threat of terrorism in the North Caucasus. The government neglects the fact that finances donated for development of the Caucasus are not spent on ordinary civilians. Feeding local authorities makes them more aggressive. Despite 99% support for the United Russia Party, there is still no improvement in stability. There are regular bombings in Dagestan, the expert notes.
Minchenko noted that the mediation of the Russian president has not resolved the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The conflict may turn into a military clash.
The expert believes that President Mikheil Saakashvili's regime in Georgia needs adjustments. His opponent, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, was overestimated. Financial opportunities cannot compensate for lack of personal charisma, mass support and professionalism in connecting with the mass media and voters, Minchenko says.
Another key event in the former USSR space is operation of the Customs Union, Minchenko believes. There are serious risks to the future of the regime in Kazakhstan, because it is highly dependent on the president's health. He maintains the balance between the country's clans. The situation in Belarus is different, Russia is increasing its economic presence there, the political analyst says.
Minchenko reckons that the presidential polls will entrench the status quo, but turbulence will start again in 2012-2013. It will be caused by foreign economic conditions and unpopular social reforms. This mainly involves commercialization of education and healthcare. The unpopular reforms will come into force in 2012-2014. Another problem is the increase of the pension age and transferring pension savings to the pension fund. Taxes for property will most likely increase.
