Approaching the end of year, 2014 is turning into one of the most turbulent years for the Middle East region in many decades was the joint opinion of expert Orientalist, director of the Institute of Oriental Studies, Vitaly Naumkin, Professor of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the MFA of Russia, Alexei Malashenko, and Advisor to the Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council, Ambassador Andrei Baklanov, while summing up the year.
Thus, according to Vitaly Naumkin, this excessive turbulence has resulted in rampant violence in the Middle East, adopting "completely barbaric forms." "I am trying to speak about what we have seen during the year in the example of the activity of the terrorist organization "Islamic State" and some other groups. In general, it was a feature of the past year, apparently dominant in a tense atmosphere, the main trend is the increasing terrorism in the region. The second key feature is that on the side of the terrorists is a huge number of mercenaries and people who just went to fight for radical ideas from all over the world," he pointed out, stressing that this has never happened before in history on such a scale.
"People are coming from all over the world by the tens of thousands, even from relatively quiet Tunisia or Central Asia, or even from Russian regions. It is worth noting that the Russians who are fighting today for Islamic State, most of them didn’t come to the East from Russia, but from the diaspora. Keep in mind that their ultimate goal is the Northern Caucasus," Naumkin added.
According to him, there is a third key feature. "I'm talking about a crisis of identity. I do not agree with the theory of redistribution colonialist boundaries, because the states were set up in 100 years. I am a supporter of stability and believe that the existing system should remain, although there will be a reformatting of the system in some states." The problem of Ukraine "sure, will occur in different countries of the Middle East. Today, we see contradictions within the Sunni, that are not only acute but also inflated by external forces in an attempt to weaken Islam. The manipulations of internal processes are very active, just look what forms it takes, not only Islamophobia but also Christianophobia. This is a sharp destabilization of the situation that threatens the peaceful life of people," warned the expert.
Speaking of the measures taken by the Western coalition, Vitaly Naumkin noted that with their threats "Islamic State" won’t be neutralized. "What is being done by the West today cannot stabilize the situation. To beat Islamic State with rocket attacks is impossible. I am sure that those states that have recognized the need to fight terrorists will be able to cope with it. Also, I am sure that Iraq will be preserved, although the Kurdish issue will not be removed from the agenda. Surely, Al-Qaeda will declare itself again. In addition, in a situation where the Arab-Israeli problem is not solved and the creation of a Palestinian state has little chance, it is very difficult to say that the internal protest will not push people to radical action," the director of the Institute of Oriental Studies voiced his expectations for the future.
Alexei Malashenko, in his turn, offered to take a look at this year in the Middle East from a different angle. "Now very few people know how to deal with Islamic State, and do you know what catches your eye? We all refer to Islamic State and similar terrorist groups as something unnatural, whereas the factors giving rise to them were far from yesterday, and they were manifested in different trends. To bomb Islamic State is not serious, in fact, it's a useless thing. It is based on the phenomenon of radical Islamism, that is, the desire for the Islamic way of life (the question is how they want it). This huge phenomenon, growing from quality to quantity, is currently being realized in the form of the terrorist organization "Islamic State", which even intends to print its own currency," Malashenko said.
The expert stressed that in itself Islamism is the widest phenomenon, encompassing both legitimate authorities of individual states and terrorist organizations. "This should be treated philosophically, trying to understand their logic, because there are not only the radical Islamists, but moderates as well. Calling them all bandits is uncomfortable, and to consider them as an opposition is strange. They will always be fighting for their idea, and to do away with them by force is impossible. What rescues is the fact that, when coming to power, they often discredit themselves, as happened in Egypt and Tunisia," he said, adding that it is not as important how many people from Russia are fighting today for Islamic State as how many of them will return to Russia.
Andrei Baklanov said that following his visit to Syria he had to agree with the position of Vitaly Naumkin. "Now in the press an alarmist assessment of the events in the Middle East prevails, but in Syria this year some amazing things have happened. When the Syrian conflict began in 2011, the Syrians were very confused. Today it looks normal, everything works, with President Bashar al-Assad very optimistic about the future of the country, saying that he is proud that the American script of the "Arab Spring" began to unravel in Syria. Now the Syrians say that over these years the power of Assad has only strengthened, once again a Commission for Conciliation has been established, humanitarian problems are being solved. They live better than you could imagine after three years of bloody war," Baklanov said.
"With respect to the Islamic State, the Syrians believe that in this organization not just Islamism and Islamists are important, no, these people are used and led by those who cooperate with the United States. There is a lot of evidence for this. According to the Syrians, it is not profitable for the US to bomb Islamic State, because they need a splinter which will weaken the region. We all, still, need to refrain from the initiatives of the US in the region. It is expected that Islamic State will not expand, but will try to stretch its "tentacles" in different countries, up to our Caucasus. It is now powered by a certain category of people who are disappointed in Western values and find an outlet for themselves in the ideas of "Islamic State." None of us work anough in the ideological plane," the Ambassador concluded.
According to the diplomat, a sharp change in the situation will not happen in the coming year. "It will be a protracted war of position, blood will be spilled. We must try by diplomatic means to minimize loss of human lives," Andrei Baklanov urged.
