World Press on Iran, Turkey and the Caucasus (February 18-20, 2012)

The Washington Post published an article headlined ‘Why Iran thinks it needs the bomb’. According to the author, bombastic claims of nuclear achievement, threats to close critical international waterways,alleged terrorist plots and hints of diplomatic outreach — all are emanating from Tehran right now. This past week, confrontation between Iran and the West reached new heights as Israel accused Iran of a bombing attempt in Bangkok and others targeting Israeli diplomats in India and Georgia. And yet, on Wednesday, an Iranian nuclear negotiator signaled that Tehran wants to get back to the table. The author suggests that the key to unraveling the Islamic republic lies in understanding Iran’s perception of itself. More than any other Middle Eastern nation, Iran has always imagined itself as the natural hegemon of its neighborhood. As the Persian empire shrank over the centuries and Persian culture faded with the arrival of more alluring Western mores, Iran’s exaggerated view of itself remained largely intact. By dint of history, Iranians believe that their nation deserves regional preeminence. In conclusion, the article states that it may still be possible to disarm Iran without using force. The key figure remains Khamenei, who maintains the authority and stature to impose a decision on his reluctant disciples. A coercive strategy that exploits not just Khamenei’s economic distress but his political vulnerabilities may cause him to reach beyond his narrow circle, broaden his coalition and inject a measure of pragmatism into his state’s deliberations. As with most ideologues, Iran’s supreme leader worries more about political dissent than economic privation. Such a strategy requires not additional sanctions but considerable imagination.

The Los Angeles Times informs it readers that Iranian officials said on Sunday that it was cutting off oil exports to France and Britain in a preemptive strike against European economic sanctions, while top U.S. and British officials warned against a military attack on Iran's disputed nuclear program. Iran's retaliatory oil ban was the latest instance of high-stakes brinkmanship surrounding Tehran's nuclear ambitions. Iran says its program is solely for peaceful purposes, but the U.S. and many of its allies suspect the goal is to develop weapons. The Joint Chiefs chairman voiced concern that an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure could prompt Tehran to retaliate against U.S. targets in the Persian Gulf or Afghanistan, where the U.S.-led war against the Taliban continues. An Israeli attack could set back Iran's nuclear program "probably for a couple of years," Dempsey acknowledged, echoing testimony given to a Senate committee last week by James R. Clapper, director of National Intelligence. But Dempsey made it clear that U.S. policymakers considered such a move "destabilizing."

In the meantime, Obama administration takes back seat on Iran sanctions. According to the paper, Despite the Obama administration's vows to cripple Iran with economic sanctions, it is leaders in Congress and Europe who have seized the lead in the West's long-running campaign to punishTehran for its suspected nuclear weapons program. In recent months, the toughest moves to deter Iran from pursuing its presumed nuclear ambitions have come from a bipartisan group in Congress and European allies, especially Britain and France. The White House at first resisted these steps before embracing them as inevitable.

The Hurriyet Daily News reports that Turkish PM Erdoğan broke his health-imposed silence yesterday, denying there is a crisis within the state and hailing ‘harmony’ among institutions. According to him, Turkey’s top institutions are not in a crisis but are instead working together in harmony, the prime minister said yesterday in his first comments on the fight over an attempt to probe top spy officials and his first remarks since emerging from follow-up digestive surgery. The crisis appears over following the president’s summary approval of an amendment making the prime minister’s consent obligatory before a prosecutor can launch probes against intelligence officials. All eyes have now turned to Erdoğan, who will find prosecutors’ requests to probe Fidan and other senior officials on his desk when he returns to Ankara, likely this week.