Yesterday, the Bavarian representative office in Berlin held a podium discussion on the topic "Russia between the claim to supremacy and systemic crisis." The event was organized by the Hans Seidel Foundation – a socio-political institution close to the CSU party, which comprises one faction with the CDU in the Bundestag. The head of the Moscow bureau of the first public television channel ARD, Udo Lilishkis, and professor of political science at the University of North Carolina at Chapen Hill, Holger Moroff, were invited for the discussion from the German side. Russia was represented by the Director of the Center for German Studies of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Science, Vladislav Belov.
Answering the question of the moderator about how the economic crisis and Western sanctions affect the rating of the Russian president, Belov noted that Vladimir Putin feels absolutely confident on the domestic front and, if necessary, may make further sacrifices to achieve foreign policy goals.
According to the scientist, Putin represents the system accepted by citizens: "For the Russians, he is the guarantor of the system, which provides the stability of the state, its industrial development, and prevents events similar to the 'color revolutions' in Georgia and Ukraine."
At the same time, Belov noted the presence of criticism voiced against senior authorities of the Russian Federation. "Now, when the government and the president are talking about the need to support small and medium-sized enterprises, I am horrified – it is being stated for about 20 years already! Insufficient protection of property rights, full judicial reform and many other problems, which are hindering the development of private enterprise, have still not been resolved by the president," the expert pointed out.
Reporter Udo Lilishkis, in his turn, explained the popularity of the Russian president by a constant "brainwashing" of the population through the media: "Vladimir Putin's election campaign does not stop even for a day."
Speaking about the prospects of a full recovery of Russian-German relations, Belov expressed cautious optimism: "In recent months, the number of bilateral contacts at the level of mutual visits by economic and political delegations has increased significantly. Germany sends signals about its readiness to normalize relations, but the Russian position remains tough. I hope that by the end of this year Moscow will also soften, and trust between the two countries will be restored step by step." According to Belov, the stabilization of the situation in the east of Ukraine, which is observed now, the complete effect of the ceasefire regime and the withdrawal of heavy weapons, demonstrate that Russia and Europe can achieve many things through constructive cooperation.
The researcher noted that the tough line of Chancellor Angela Merkel, which actually promoted the introduction of EU economic sanctions against Russia in response to its actions in Crimea, was largely unexpected for the Kremlin. "Moscow made a mistake with Crimea, assuming that its accession will be perceived as corresponding to international law. They hoped for understanding from the once-divided Germany in this matter. But this understanding did not ensue," Vladislav Belov noted. The scientist believes that President Putin is pragmatic enough to abandon the project 'Novorossia', which suggested the creation of a corridor to Transnistria. "Such ideas were actively lobbied by some people in the entourage of the president," Belov said.
According to Belov, the European Union and the United States pursue different objectives by imposing sanctions against Russia. Brussels pursues the task to return the Russian Federation to the mainstream of international law, but it is only a secondary goal for the United States. The main motive for the actions of the United States lies in its energy interests on the continent, and the result is intended to be to push Russia out of the European energy market and the establishment of American dominance there. Political analyst Holger Moroff, commenting on the actions of Russia in relation to Ukraine, noted that it is a sign of weakness, not strength. At the same time, Moroff was forced to admit that Russian actions in Syria caught the US by surprise.
