Victoria Panfilova, commentator for Nezavisimaya Gazeta. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Iran held a trilateral meeting in Van, Turkey. Meager bureaucratic reports on the talks at which “the participants confirmed devotedness to the belt of peace, stability, security, prosperity, and cooperation in the region by means of further improvement of relations in all spheres” almost buried the most important and interesting question which was discussed by foreign ministers – linking railway systems of Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Iran by the construction of a railway branch line Nakhichevan-Julfa-Tabriz.
To be precise, after the construction and launch of the railway Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK), an acute issue is building a branch line from Kars to Nakhichevan and further to the mentioned residential areas of Iran. The Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutogly commented on the idea of linking railway systems of three countries that implementation of the project and development of railway service between the Asian countries “would enable building the Railway Silk Route.” “We will be able to transport cargos from Beijing to London,” the Turkish Foreign Minister said.
According to him, an important role in the global project will be played by the railway tunnel “Marmara” which passes under Bosporus Strait. Marmara began its operation last year, while the railway line of BTK will be launched by the middle of 2015. And this is the most optimistic forecast, as certain obstacles to construction of the branch line appear in the Georgian territory from time to time.
Initially BTK was planned to be built in early 2013. Azerbaijan and Turkey adhered to the schedule. Georgia did the same for some time. However, complicated relief which demanded additional resources and efforts, political instability and the power change influenced the situation. New Georgian leaders even tried to doubt reasonability of BTK railway. All doubts were eliminated only after top talks. Moreover, actually construction of the railway in the Georgian territory was provided for Azerbaijani money which was given to Tbilisi as beneficial 1-per-cent loan. At the same time, the Georgian side tried to insist that the railway was demanded by Azerbaijan and it meant Baku had to pay for the construction without any loans.
In all fairness it should be noted that BTK brings certain risks to the Georgian economy. Local experts point out that launching of BTK will lead to a situation when an export flow from Azerbaijan to Georgian ports of Poti and Batumi could be reoriented toward Turkey; i.e. ports will lose workload and revenues. The problem shifts to a sphere of boosting export volumes and joining other Eastern countries to the transport corridor, for example, Central Asian states.
Ilgar Velizade, Baku political scientist, the head of the South Caucasus Club of Political Scientists, told Vestnik Kavkaza that linking of railway systems of Azerbaijan, Iran, and Turkey wouldn’t happen in the near future. “The talks between foreign ministers became continuation of trilateral cooperation which is aimed at intensification of economic relations between Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Iran,” Velizade said. According to him, Nakhichevan-Julfa-Tabriz is not an accidental project. The other thing is time and money. Iran which has recently got rid of heavy economic sanctions is searching for ways to intensify its foreign economic policy, but it lacks resources for individual participation in major projects. Moreover, Tehran hasn’t fulfilled its obligations on construction of the Kazvin-Resht-Astara railway. “As for Azerbaijan and Turkey, the countries will begin building the Kars-Nakhichevan railway branch line, Iran’s view notwithstanding,” Velizade thinks. According to the expert, the new project will demand huge investments, while its fulfillment will last at least five years. “Thus, even though the idea is announced and interesting to participants, it needs thoughtful development of responsible departments of the countries. It will take time too,” Ilgar Velizade said. He also said the project could be completed by the middle of the 2020s.
