The result of the visit of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to Baku
is mainly discussed within the problems of energy cooperation between
Russia and Azerbaijan and the settlement of the Karabakh issue.
Rapprochement on the Caspian issue is another aspect of the
negotiation process.
In the last several months the Caspian topic was put on the back
burner. On March 2010 when Baku was discussing cooperation in the
security of the Caspian, the negotiations process was less intense.
The main problem is the vague position of Tehran. The reasons for the
postponement of a recent session of the working group developing the
convention for the legal status of the Caspian are still unclear.
The meeting was planned for the first quarter of 2010, but the plans
were not realized, which demonstrates that Tehran and the trio of
Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have serious disagreements, which
could be solved in the SCC proposed by Russia and supported by
Kazakhstan.
Tehran does not seem to be ready to resolve delimitation and
ecological issues. The interference of outside forces is obvious,
especially taking into account the threat of US military actions.
What forecasts can be made and will Dmitry Medvedev's visit have any
influence? These questions might be answered at the upcoming summit on
the Caspian. On the other hand, the activation of interest in the
Caspian and energy projects may result in real actions. And since Baku
is the host city for the summit the dialogue between Moscow, Astana
and Baku will be more active and the position of Ashkhabad and Tehran
with the 'G3' may meet. So SCC may become a real prospect which will
turn the Caspian into a region of peace and stability.
Author: Alexey Vlasov. Exclusively for VK
