Victoria Panfilova, an observer of Nezavisimaya Gazeta. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are best placed among the CIS countries to navigate the challenging macroeconomic conditions caused by the oil price fall and the economic situation in Russia. This was stated by Moody's Investors Service in its annual CIS Sovereign Outlook. According to analysts of the agency, both countries have large reserve buffers and are not involved in the conflict in Ukraine. Other countries of the Commonwealth are much more dependent on fluctuations in oil prices and sanctions against Russia. According to Moody's analyst Ernest Seregenti, challenging conditions for CIS countries will continue to persist over the next 12 to 18 months.
The reason that Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan look economically better, according to experts, is the policy pursued by these countries in recent years. We are talking about the creation of oil funds, government reserve funds, sorts of 'airbags'. These measures have helped to reduce the negative impact of the global financial and economic crisis on the national economy and ensure the implementation of key programs for economic and social development. As the head of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, Kairat Kelimbetov, noted "during the crisis of 2008-2010 the foreign exchange reserves of the National Bank and the National Fund amounted to $50 billion, compared to almost $100 billion at the end of 2014 and now." According to him, the experts calculated with what price of oil per barrel Kazakhstan is capable of holding a positive balance of revenues and expenditures of the National Fund. "We thought that with the price of oil above $55 per barrel, we do not eat up the body of the National Fund. Those gains which are included in the National Fund, minus losses, with a price above $55 are positive. In the medium term, no later than in 2017, more than 300 million barrels will be produced in the first phase of Kashagan, and in 2020 the increase of oil extraction at Tengiz Field will operate," Kelimbetov said.
The Director of the Institute of Integration Problems of the EEU, the vice president of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, Anatoly Spitsin, did not rule out that the oil price may go up already in 2016. "But Kazakhstan has reserves even with the current price: development of infrastructure, housing construction, the optimization of lending of the real sector, increasing the capacity of oil and gas resources, as well as the development of renewable energy sources," Spitsin told Vestnik Kavkaza.
He noted that Kazakhstan has formed an effective model of a market economy, which is based on the active role of the state and the provision of public-private partnership. During the years of economic reforms in the country more than $160 billion were invested by foreigners.The basic conditions for productive entrepreneurial activity were formed.
The interest of foreign partners in joint projects with Kazakhstan is natural, as well as on the work in the country even during the global economic crisis. In particular, the visit of the Prime Minister of Lithuania, Algirdas Butkevičius, his talks with President Nursultan Nazarbayev and his counterpart Karim Masimov, are devoted to issues of economic cooperation. Despite the projected economic risks in the next two years, Lithuania is ready to invest in the expansion of business in Kazakhstan and advocates the establishment of joint ventures.
The Prime Minister of Lithuania, Algirdas Butkevičius, arrived in Kazakhstan to participate in 8th Astana Economic Forum, which will begin its work on May 21. This is the one of the most authoritative economic forums, which gathers world leaders, international experts, scientists, politicians and public figures, and representatives of the business community to it. This year delegates from 90 countries will discuss the theme 'Infrastructure: the driver of sustainable economic growth'. The growth of Kazakhstan's economy, its efficiency, the investment attractiveness of the country made the AEF site relevant and popular.
"Compared with previous years, the agenda will be less busy, which, however, does not affect the quality of the forum. 30 sessions will be held during two days. The main topic will be the development of infrastructure as the main direction of the economy. Experts will discuss topical issues of the world economy. We hope that the new drivers of economic growth in the world over the next two years will be identified at the event," the first deputy chairman of the Institute for Economic Research, Asset Irgaliev, said.
The Lithuanian delegation, however, did not lose time, and participated in a business forum with Kazakh entrepreneurs even before the opening of the AEF in Astana. "Kazakhstan is Lithuania's most important partner in Central Asia," Algirdas Butkevičius said. Karim Massimov, in his turn, stressed once again the unique opportunities to do business in Kazakhstan, inviting members of the Lithuanian delegation to actively participate in joint projects: "The country has adopted a special investment legislation, which provides great opportunities and benefits. I hope very much that Lithuanian companies will be interested in investing in Kazakhstan and taking advantage of the new opportunities offered by Kazakhstan's developing economy." However, Lithuania is of great interest to Kazakhstan. In particular, it seems tempting to use the port of Klaipeda for transportation of Kazakh goods to Europe, particularly Scandinavia, and in the near future Lithuania could become the sea gate in the West for Kazakhstan. This issue will be further discussed today at a meeting of the Lithuanian prime minister with the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev.
