The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen have arrived in the South Caucasus on another mediatory mission. The Russian, US and French diplomats first paid a visit to Yerevan to meet the Armenian foreign and defense ministers. Later the mediators were received by the President of Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan. The co-chairs could not visit Karabakh itself, due to weather conditions, and preferred to go directly to Baku to meet Azerbaijani officials of the same rank.
After the Yerevan meeting, the diplomats didn’t make any comments to the press, due to the confidentiality of the talks. However, even after the end of the mission, the co-chairs were not inclined to make any conclusive statements. Bernard Fassier, the French diplomat, informed the public that the mission was undertaken to support the current progress and to persuade the parties to accept the ‘basic principles’ of the conflict settlement.
Political experts do not expect any significant progress to be derived from this mission, the first of 2011. According to M. Fassier, the trip was aimed at coordinating this year's activities. The co-chairs admit that progress is far too slow. The last meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers took place in Moscow on January 24, but no comments on its achievements were made afterwards.
The co-chairs are expected to submit a full report on their last autumn mission to Nagorno-Karabakh this February, which is vitally important for Azerbaijan, as it has to decide whether it thinks this document should be put on the UN General Assembly agenda or not.
Before the February mission of the OSCE Minsk Group, the International Crisis Group published an annual report entitled ‘Armenia-Azerbaijan: Preventing War’. This paper stresses the growth in tension in the region caused by mutual accusations, failure in the peace talks and an arms race. All this is likely to trigger a prolonged military conflict that will probably embroil Russia, Turkey and Iran. Such a conflict would endanger major gas and oil pipelines, vital for the economy of the region. To prevent such a disastrous scenario, experts urge the conflicting parties to sign the ‘basic principles’.
Both sides, according to their leaders, are ready to carry on cooperation with the Minsk Group, but Azerbaijan is starting to lose patience over the issue of occupation and is ready to use all means necessary, even force, to free its territories. Baku wants the international community to use direct pressure to persuade Yerevan to leave Karabakh.
These are the conditions the Minsk Group co-chairs have to face while preparing a new meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders. The Russian, Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers are also continuing consultations aimed at a peaceful settlement of the conflict.
Evgueniy Krishtalev, exclusively to VK
