The events which are taking place in Arab countries have prompted expert considerations about the possibility of their “translation” to the territory of the former Soviet Union, as there are some similarities. However, we cannot say that they will correspond to all former Soviet republics. Each of them has its own peculiarities and it
is not right to compare Egypt and Moldova or Armenia and Tunisia.
On the other hand, recent developments in Armenia have shown that social risks and a high level of corruption are a basis for protest movements. As the first president of Armenia, Lev Ter-Petrosyan, said: “Incidentally occurring social protests in the country will break the camel's back and make the authorities collapse some day.” It is interesting that Ter-Petrosyan spoke about Tunisia and Egypt and didn’t mention that in the Middle East the religious factor plays a significant role. As for Armenia, there is no religious factor there,
which means that the Armenian authorities have a wider range of possibilities than Mubarak or Ben Ali had. The point is how to use these capabilities with growing inflation, decreasing living standards and the highest prices for food produce.
A difficult situation can be observed in Central Asian countries, especially in Kyrgyzstan. There, the new authorities are still dividing up power, the formed coalition is not stable, and in March or April we will probably see a new “tulip” season, under the motto “Let’s do as in Egypt and Libya.”
This is why China has restricted media coverage of riots in Egypt. Young radicals might decide to repeat this practice as a way to fight corruption.
A wise step was taken by the Azeri authorities. In January, after a statement by the president and the head of the presidential administration, the authorities in Azerbaijan began implementing a wide-ranging campaign against corruption. These preventative measures will be an 'airbag' between the country and forces aiming at
instability in Azerbaijan.
However, the territory of the former Soviet Union is not safe. Bahrain, with its rich oil resources, seemed to be safe, but problems did occur. Nevertheless, we should believe in the best, as any new crisis could be the last for some countries.
Alexey Vlasov, editor-in-chief of VK
