Levon Zurabian: "Armenian National Congress is confident in the success of the "velvet revolution."

An increase in social tensions in Armenia has made some experts and politicians talk about the possibility of a rebellion. The critical mass has expanded, as the recent mass rallies of the extra-parliamentary opposition, the Armenian National Congress (ANC), are showing. The ANC coordinator, Levon Zurabian, answers the questions of VK.

- What, in your opinion, are the main reasons for the deterioration of the social situation?

- During the term of the second president, Robert Kocharyan, a vicious political-economic system was created. Its essence lies in the fact that the president and some oligarchs close to him have subjugated the state apparatus and used it for the sole purpose of ensuring the flow of excess profits. This vicious system, aimed at enriching the monopoly of importers and eliminating any possibility of free competition and civilized business, is facilitating the expulsion from the country of businessmen. Entrepreneurs and migrant workers abroad are sending to their relatives in Armenia large amounts of money earned in other countries. The corrupt government, along with the oligarchs, is trying to parasitize on these transfers. It is perhaps the only country in the world that pursues a policy of artificial strengthening of the national currency. This policy has no economic justification, because everyone knows that a strong currency appreciation leads to a decrease in exports and production in the country, while its sole purpose is to provide excess profits for monopoly importers.

Thus a criminal-oligarchic system was established in Armenia. This system prevents businesses from developing and is a major factor in the dramatic deterioration of the socio-economic situation. The increases in world food prices also play an important role. However, when a country has a healthy economic system, it is always possible to mitigate the situation associated with a decline of living standards and business activity.

- The number of people at the ANC rallies is increasing each time. Which strategy is the opposition, and particularly the ANC, going to follow?

- It is natural that in times of crisis, growth of social discontent, high tariffs for gas and electricity and unprecedented inflation, more and more people are joining the movement. These are, among others, the ones subjected to harassment by city authorities, street vendors, and owners of small and medium-sized stores, whose interests are being infringed upon by the government for the benefit of three or four owners of supermarket chains. If you add the fact that the government simply is unable to reform the oligarchy, it becomes clear why people are looking for a way to conduct a democratic revolution, which might demolish the oligarchy with the support of broader segments of the population.

- In one of your recent speeches you said that the goal of the ANC is to establish democracy by means of a "velvet revolution.” How realistic is this?

- It's not only realistic. It is virtually the only way out of the current situation. We cannot afford chaos and turmoil for weeks and months, as happened and is happening in the Arab world, because none of these countries have the Karabakh problem. We must not allow any bloodshed or disruption of the state structures, nor the weakening of our position in the front line. Consequently, only a “velvet revolution” should take place in Armenia, only under the pressure of huge masses of people who will fight for democracy in a disciplined and organized way.

- Three years ago there was a similar attempt by the opposition, which gained wide popular support. As a result, the popular protest was suppressed by the authorities by means of brutal force. Do you assume that this might happen again?

- Today we have a different situation. First, the combined opposition has become an institutional, developed and organized force, which has received international recognition and has developed contacts with international institutions. Secondly, in the last three years we have been struggling in the conditions of information blockade and isolation from the international community. Meanwhile, it is obvious that after the events in the Middle East the international community has recognized the threat posed to international security by dictatorships and authoritarian regimes, and today it is more openly supporting democratic movements. This is a very important factor, which will certainly help us to pursue the case. The third factor is the people, inspired by the examples of fearless popular resistances in Egypt, Tunisia and other countries, ready for the strongest possible action in order to conduct democratic reforms in Armenia.

On the other hand, the ruling regime, which has failed to solve any important problems for the country during the past three years, is on the verge of collapse. The regime has virtually exhausted its political, financial and international resources. The ANC is confident that a solution to the problems of democratization in Armenia by means of a "velvet revolution" with the participation of population will come very soon. No government can confront a struggle with the entire nation, and according to the dynamics of the rallies, this is likely to be the case.

- In one of your speeches you assume that the playoff might take place as early as April.

- To talk about timing is always a thankless task. But the rapid deterioration of the socio-economic situation and a drastic increase in opposition sentiments suggests that the time is pressing, and that in the near future very serious events might take place.

-At a rally on the 1st of March the ANC presented demands to the authorities, including the release of all political prisoners, lifting the ban on rallies on Liberty Square and dismissal of several senior officials. In your opinion, what decision will the authorities take?

- If they are not complete idiots, then they will meet these requirements, or at least a part of the requirements, which will make dialogue between the government and the ANC possible. The situation is close to catastrophe, and if the Armenian government is able to take at least some responsible steps, it must immediately begin to implement reforms and to take steps that would allow a dialogue with the opposition. The authorities must understand that the alternative to dialogue is a worsening of the socio-economic crisis, rioting and a serious confrontation of society with the regime. Our task is to prevent mindless social rebellion, accompanied by the defeat of the governmental offices, shops and banks. We are doing our best to avoid this. But the authorities must understand that even the ANC will not be able to hide the discontent of people, if they (authorities) do not take any steps towards reforming the political-economic system in Armenia, and do not initiate a dialogue with the ANC to hold early presidential and parliamentary elections .

Interview by Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan. Exclusively for VK.