The director of the Caucasus Institute, Alexander Iskandaryan, talks about the prospects of political development in Armenia, as well as the balance and relation of political forces.
- At the last meeting of the ANC on June 30 its leader, Levon Ter-Petrosyan said that a political dialogue with the authorities should only center on the question of early elections and the establishment of a legitimate authority in the country. In turn, the president has described the process of communication between the government and opposition as a dialogue on a number of internal issues. What is actually happening today in the internal politics of Armenia?
- Until today the ANC was not a part of the system of political forces in Armenia, which is represented by the Republican Party, the party of "Prosperous Armenia", the "Dashnaktsutiun" party, such parties as "Heritage" and "Rule of Law", who have been fighting and continue to fight with each other for seats in parliament. The Congress did not aim for seats in the parliament, but was fighting the whole system. For a long time the ANC was trying to change it. What is presented as dialogue in Armenia is, in reality, an attempt to incorporate the ANC into the framework of the system. It was an attempt to define the fighting rules for the ANC in the upcoming parliamentary elections. So it is assumed that if the Congress is satisfied with that framework, then correspondingly, and subsequently, it will recognize the results of the elections. After the release of all the political prisoners, people were under the impression that the ANC had accepted this framework and rules, however, for some reason, everyone continues to call it a dialogue. At the same time, the RPA and the ANC remain political opponents, their interests continue to conflict and the rivalry between them will only intensify by the beginning of the autumn. Public resources are the weapon in this struggle; we see that both sides are using them. The political struggle has only slightly changed its direction. So today something which had never taken place before is possible: the recognition of the elections by the losing side. Whether this will actually take place is another issue. That is, I am not expecting elections on the basis of the distribution of power "quotas". Only because I know the mechanisms of the electoral machine in Armenia, I do not expect this. The distribution of votes by quotas is impossible in Armenia, for the simple reason that there are discussions about fraud, condemnation by international organizations, forgers caught in the act, the bribing of voters as well as the manipulation of broadcasting time and administrative resources, intimidation, distribution of favours and all the other phenomena well-known to all of us. The dialogue between the parties is centred on the course of the elections and the type of struggle and not on the sharing of the falsified votes. This is already happening.
- Will the holiday season bring stagnation to the political arena of the republic?
- I think so. Of course, the parties will attempt to keep up the process, but in political life any actual events take place only in autumn, when the campaign begins. In autumn there will be attempts to untwist and increase rally activity. The rhetoric will only intensify with time, because Ter-Petrossian's team works in the public field, the reduction of which leads to a loss of confidence; an open confrontation will also take place because a dialogue does not imply that the opposition and the authorities no longer have any problems or disputes and are no longer adversaries. The opposition and the government will continue to blame each other, which is normal, but all of it will happen in a different way and in a different language; contradictions will remain, and we will all witness their development in the autumn and winter. By the way, the Republican Party is already working in the public field, which is testified by recurrent statements made by its spokesman, Eduard Sharmazanov. A serious struggle will unfold, which will have to be resolved somehow. At the same time there are disagreements between the ruling coalition within the opposition, because it is not united, as the opposition and the authorities are made up of several bodies and several forces. Moreover, there are controversies even within the ruling Republican Party and something similar is happening in the opposition Armenian National Movement party.
- The dialogue between the government and the ANC doesn't seem to be very conducive to increasing the attractiveness of the Congress in the eyes of the electorate, which can be seen, at least at its rallies.
- When I happen to be in Yerevan, I participate in almost all the rallies of the ANC. After March 1, 2008, the ANC worked in line with the acceleration of radical rhetoric to attract a certain type of electorate. These were people ready for alienation and radicalism, being from various social strata. The ANC was attracting these people by maintaining the fire in its burner, which was its only way to maintain its presence in politics. They joined the rallies to hear Levon Ter-Petrosyan say"no" to the president, parliament, constitution and elections. In fact, to hear a "no" to the entire political system. The numbers of these people were rising and falling, but they were all of the same radical type. As soon as the radical rhetoric of the Congress was replaced with a slightly less radical one, this electorate was naturally no longer satisfied with it. This was followed by an attempt by other forces, including the emerging ones, to attract this radical electorate. There are votes there and someone needs to take them. Until recently "Sardarapat" was trying to do it, now it is the "Free Democrats" party. It is clear that the ANC took a decision, according to which it sacrificed this part of the electorate for the sake of collecting more votes from another audience. It is clear that Armenia has another electorate, which is demonstrated by the results of past elections. Officially, Levon Ter-Petrosyan gained 21.5%, but Arthur Baghdasaryan received more than 18%. These were people ready to vote against the government, but not ready to vote for Ter-Petrosyan. Together this would amount to about 40%. So at the moment the ANC is trying to go beyond the radical rhetoric, with some losses. I do not know whether this attempt will be successful, it will become clear in the elections, but in this I see the reason for the ANC's gradual alienation from radical rhetoric. In this way the ANC is performing the global task of finding its place in the future political system. Because, without changing anything, the opposition will come to something new on March 1, and what will happen next - a marginalization in the form of regular future alienation from the political system? This is one of the directions, as there are such parties in Armenia, but it is not a very promising one.
- There are periodic rumours about the imminent change of the leader of the ANC...
- In fact, certain changes are at the moment taking place in the ANC. Some very important figures in the past are leaving the ANC, some are going into the shadows or simply becoming less active, while others are becoming more powerful. Overall, this is a natural process, because for quite a long time the Congress has been existing in the same format, which is now transforming into another. Undoubtedly, the parliamentary elections will be followed by another step in this direction, as upon entering the parliament the ANC members will have fundamentally different access to the media and therefore a different rating. At the same time, a revolution within the ANC, the replacement of its leader, parliamentary and presidential elections in the first place, will be highly dependent on the results of the National Assembly elections in 2012. Of course, sooner or later this revolution will take place, as the leaders come and go. Age criteria play a role here and simply the length of stay in politics and so on. At the same time it is very difficult for me to imagine that anyone from the ANC would be able in such a short time to develop a political capital comparable to the capital of Levon Ter-Petrosyan. I do not consider that to be very reasonable.
Interview by David Stepanyan, Armenia. Exclusively for VK
