The post-Soviet region sometimes called «Moscow's porch» became a matter of concern for the EU. It became unequivocally clear in the last day of the 21 economic forum in Krynica-Zdrój when panelists one by one discussed the question what will happen with the CIS if Russia leaves the field.
As a Polish journalist has wittily noticed, experts are ready to discuss plausible consequences of withdrawal of American armies from Iraq or Afghanistan in this sense. At the first glance, the comparison is strange enough, but analysts from the EU started from the obvious fact - the post-Soviet region is undergoing fragmentation, Russia has no precise strategy or, more exactly, a policy concerning the former Soviet republics.
It is necessary pay due tribute for the exactly formulated question - is the CIS a burden for Russia or a window to new possibilities? Economist Michael Delyagin said that the CIS nothing more but the club of elderly men, sometimes with the excess weight.
However, by and large, the question has remained unsettled, because all those alternative schemes suggested by the American and Polish experts could just evoke a smile of another participant of the discussion - the Azerbaijani deputy Asim Mollazade. As a great politician said, they are extremely far from the people. We will leave for the conscience of the experts the problem of a logical link between the disintegration of the British Empire and experience of the post-Soviet building - we will leave it on conscience of experts.
It turns out that Russia doesn't have not enough political will to head the process of transformation of the CIS, and EU elementary lacks understanding of local realities. If Ukraine and Belarus still have enough creativity, Central Asia and the South Caucasus provide only questions. Michael Delyagin has exactly noticed that no external force is ready to undertake responsibility for the post-Soviet region. Even China seeks to limit the expansion to trade relations.
It turns out that Russia doesn't have not enough political will to head the process of transformation of the CIS, and EU elementary lacks understanding of local realities. If Ukraine and Belarus still have enough creativity, Central Asia and the South Caucasus provide only questions. Michael Delyagin has exactly noticed that no external force is ready to undertake responsibility for the post-Soviet region. Even China seeks to limit the expansion to trade relations.
Discussions concerning the South Caucasus were very heated. What is paradoxical, Armenian, Georgian, Azerbaijani experts referred to the Russian theme, accusing Moscow obviously or latently in troubles and difficulties the region has undergone in the 1990s.
Georgia is likely to be ready for becoming the center of centre of attraction for neighbors, using the new image of the country, as well as success of national modernization. Now this thought is openly introduced on the expert level. For the first within my recollection, the idea of regional integration has been articulated in such a clear and accurately formulated way.
21st economic Forum has left many unanswered questions. Small European countries look to the future with anxiety, underreacting the promises of the near prosperity on the pattern of Poland. The CIS countries project their phantom pains upon Russia sincerely believing that it is a required way to solve their problems. He that hath ears to hear, let him hear , but, unfortunately, the variety of opinions hinders assembling the complicated picture from fragments.
Alexei Vlasov, Moscow – Krinitsa. Exclusive for VK
