The opinion on Turkey's current political course that prevails in today’s media is the following: Ankara is turning towards the East; it is trying to restore its influence within the boundaries of the Ottoman Empire, thus the policy of Erdogan’s party can be called ‘Neo-Ottoman’ in its essence. But what is the reason for this turnaround? The answer is pretty obvious: because Turkey finally understood that it has no prospects of getting what it wants from the West. The negotiations on EU membership could last another 10 years, but still Europe would offer only ‘strategic partnership’ – a wording that Turkey is already fed up with. And the recent visit of Abdullah Gul to Germany proved it. The EU is unwilling to accept into its ranks a large Muslim state with different moral and cultural principles that the state’s population sticks to.
There is yet another reason, ‘geographical’ by its nature: as one high-ranking German official said, he wouldn’t like Europe to border Iran and Syria. This would contradict the very notion of Europe as Europeans understand it. It’s up to the Europeans to decide who they want to be their compatriots and who they don’t want to be associated with. Turkey, in its turn, is by itself a strong power with a great history, so it’s not going to hang around and wait for the ill-disposed ‘Christian club’ to acknowledge its achievements, and the Turkish President made sure that Europe understood this fact.
So Turkey chose to pursue the eastern vector in its foreign policy. Ankara, with its lower standards concerning issues of democracy, can easily become a model for other Muslim governments. Turkish PM Erdogan called this new policy ‘stability on all fronts’. It stipulates strengthening relations with all Turkey’s immediate neighbors, especially eastern ones. However, according to experts, this course doesn’t borne any real fruit yet, in fact, it turns out to have led to opposite results.
Let’s start with the loss of one of Turkey’s strategic partners in the region, Israel. It is true that this crisis is partially Israel’s fault. However, partial fault isn’t full responsibility, as Ankara insists. Israel’s harsh policy towards the Palestinian state and Palestinian people has always been a subject of criticism from many Muslim as well as European countries. Turkey has always supported the Palestinians in words, but in words only, in reality pursuing the line of cooperation with Israel. The scandal at the Davos World Economic Forum in 2008 and the tragedy with the Turkish vessel ‘Mavi Marmara’ became turning points in Turkish-Israeli relations. But who initiated this change? Both sides showed themselves to be uncompromising and even stubborn and disrespectful. If it wasn’t for this stubbornness or even the lack of political will, this large-scale conflict could have been avoided. Obama’s mediatory efforts ultimately failed: Turkey assigned three frigates to accompany a new flotilla to the Gaza Strip. It’s hard to tell how this new action will turn out, but harsh actions can be expected from both sides.
Before the ‘Arab Spring’ broke out, Turkey was beginning to stabilize its relations with Damascus. Erdogan met with Bashar Assad, whom he called ‘brother’ back then, and the two countries even organized a special Council for strategic cooperation. The first meeting of the Council, chaired by Erdogan himself, took place in 2009 and resulted in the signing of 51 official documents touching upon the two countries’ political relations and economic integration. Back then, Erdogan said that this meeting was the beginning of a long journey. However, this prognosis turned out to be false: after meeting with Obama on September 21, Erdogan declared that Turkey had joined the US sanctions against Assad’s government. According to lenta.ru, Erdogan said that he wasn’t going to take such a drastic step, but Damascus forced his hand by spreading vile anti-Turkish propaganda. Turkey’s decision to join the sanctions will deliver a serious blow to the Syrian economy, as Turkey is its major economic partner, but the Turkish policy of ‘stability on all fronts’ also seems to have failed in yet in another sector.
Another neighbor with which Turkey wished to stabilize its relations is Iran. The impression of an absence of any serious contradictions with Iran is created by the media and doesn’t correspond to reality. Turkey tries to press its own independent policy in the region, but it is still a conductor of US will. Damascus is the closest ally of Tehran, so Iran wouldn’t take kindly to Ankara signing up to the international sanctions. Another factor is the deployment of an American anti-missile defense system in Turkey. Iranian Defense Minister Akhmed Vakhidi said that the military presence of the US and other Western countries is a source of great concern to Iran, as it undermines the security of all Muslim countries. He added that America’s hands are stained with Afghani, Iraqi and Palestinian blood, so they shouldn’t be allowed to establish a permanent military presence in any Muslim country. So, the Iranian government regards this step by Ankara as being unfriendly.
Another conflict is boiling up in the Mediterranean, where Cypriot Greeks decided to start processing oil in their offshore zone. This decision wasn’t well received in Ankara, and it immediately signed an agreement on oil processing with the Cypriot Turks. According to Turkish media, the prospecting will start on September 23. According to the President of North Cyprus, this agreement is purely a preventative step to stop the Greeks from executing their plans.
The EU warned Turkey to avoid the sharp edges of Mediterranean oil and gas-processing issues. According to the Regnum media agency, the USA supports the Republic of Cyprus. During her meeting with the Turkish PM, Hillary Clinton said that she considers the actions of the Cyprian government and the US Noble Energy oil company to be perfectly legal. Despite this international pressure, Turkey decided to pursue its own course, and assigned two military vessels to guard the prospecting site.
This complicated situation in foreign policy is accompanied by an increase in Kurdish terrorist activity. The terrorist faction of the Kurdish Workers' Party assumed responsibility for the recent blast in Ankara that claimed the lives of 3 people and injured another 34. The militants threatened that this blast is only the beginning.
As you see, Turkey is facing a great number of problems at the moment and has to solve them all simultaneously. And it seems that now Ankara’s moves are becoming more tactical rather than strategic, as it has to respond to occurring events and seems to have lost its chance to control them.
Orkhan Sattarov, exclusively to VK
