Recently the Armenian political and expert community has been stirred up by the statement of the former president Robert Kocharyan on his possible return to big politics. Discussion of the abilities and resources of Kocharyan, considering that it isn’t his first claim to a return, has led to a disproportionate reaction. The attentive attitude to this theme is explained by simultaneous news from Moscow that Vladimir Putin will run in the polls next year. However, Kocharyan stated: “I’m surprised at the wide-scale discussion of my return in connection with political processes in Russia. Political processes should be born in Armenia rather than imposed by third parties.”
Nevertheless, few people believe this in Armenia. During the last three years Kocharyan has undertaken three attempts at returning to office. He tried to use one and the same scenario: become prime-minister through the abilities of one ruling party, Prosperous Armenia (PA). When he was president, he was one of initiators of the PA political project.
However, the initiatives of the former president have been successfully prevented by the experienced politician, President Serge Sargsyan, who is the leader of the most powerful party in the country, the Republican Party of Armenia. In the context of Kocharyan’s return, who has an image of an uncompromised power-holder, Sargsyan’s success is explained by the fact that only one person stands at the top of the power pyramid – the current president, in whose hands great power and resources are gathered. The events that took place after the end of Kocharyan’s term are evidence of Sargsyan's policy of leveling his influence.
Meanwhile, the return of the former president isn’t limited to the Kocharyan-Sargsyan-Sarkisyan triangle. Recently Kocharyan gave an interview to Mediamax and noted that there are three circumstances which could influence his decision to return to political life.
First. Absence of a real and stable improvement of the economic situation in the country and the presence of a negative view in society and migration.
Second. The necessity of his return for various social groups.
Third. His inner certainty that he is able to improve the situation radically.
Considering the current economic system, which is based on the leadership of several tycoon-monopolists, established during the presidential term of Kocharyan, we should pay attention to the second aspect - the necessity of his return for various social groups.
Notwithstanding state propaganda during three years on criticism of the opposition for the events of March 1st, 2008, the majority of the Armenian population blames the authorities for the blood bath, and first of all Kocharyan. “The Armenian people at large want to see Robert Kocharyan on trial. His return to big politics is an effort to escape becoming a defendant,” the representative of the opposition Armenian National Congress, David Shakhnazaryan, thinks.
According to the political technologist Karen Kocharyan, the intentions of Armenia's second president to copy the Russian scenario in Armenia are unreal: “There are several differences that prevent a copy of the Russian situation in Armenia. First of all, the rating of Putin in Russia is high, whereas the rating of Kocharyan in Armenia is almost zero. Putin is Prime Minister, Kocharyan is not. Putin has no opposition in Russia, Kocharyan faces strong opposition in Armenia.”
The political scientist and director of the Caucasus Institute, Alexander Iskanadryan, thinks that Putin has power in Russia, and Kocharyan hasn’t power in Armenia. A big role in the negative image of Robert Kocharyan was played by the opposition media, i.e. the newspapers Armenian Times, Forth Autocracy and Time. They have published materials and pictures mocking the former president.
There is one more factor that can influence a return of Kocharyan – possible support from foreign forces. However, this factor is not enough without social and political support within the country. Moreover, Kocharyan is a troublemaking politician for foreign forces and Moscow.
Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to VK.
