Sarkozy: the agony of power

The visit of the French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, to the three South Caucasian countries is one of the major political events of the year in the region. France, along with Germany, is the major player in the European Union, and the country's expressly active participation in the Libyan campaign demonstrates that President Sarkozy wants to promote France into the league of the world’s major powers as well.

Georgia, in its turn, didn’t forget Sarkozy’s mediatory efforts during the August War of 2008. On the other hand, the so-called ‘Medvedev-Sarkozy’ conflict settlement plan was never fully carried out, and the Georgian side haven’t forgotten it either. This topic will undoubtedly be touched upon in the forthcoming meeting of the French and Georgian Presidents, as well as Georgia’s aspirations for EU membership.

For Azerbaijan and Armenia, Sarkozy’s visit is equally important, because France is one of the three OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs. The Minsk Group was created as a mediatory body for a peaceful Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement. After Russia and its leader Dmitry Medvedev lost their interest in active participation in the process recently, many experts expect France to pick up the torch. Alexander Iskandaryan, the head of the Caucasus Istitute, told VK that he doesn’t expect Sarkozy to introduce any new ideas into the Karabakh conflict settlement. However, the Armenian expert pointed out that this conflict’s settlement isn’t about new or unexpected suggestions, it’s about continuous effort. On the other hand, the dead end in the negotiation process can’t last forever, so someone has to take the initiative.

During the summit of the ‘Eastern Partnership Program’ the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents didn’t hold the meeting they were expected to hold by many experts. According to Baku, it is the Armenian side that refused to meet. Now, someone has to step forward with the initiative of a new meeting. And if this initiative came from such an influential country as France, it would be hard to ignore, especially when military tension on the frontline escalates proportionally as the stagnation in the negotiation process continues.

Two Azerbaijani and one Armenian soldier died in a skirmish on the Azerbaijani-Karabakh border on October, 5, another two Armenian soldiers were injured. Incidents such as this plainly demonstrate the fragility of the so-called ‘peace’ in the region. During his sojourn in Yerevan, Sarkozy emphasized that “there’s nothing more dangerous than the preservation of the status quo, which gives way to the escalation of mutual hatred and puts a final resolution of the conflict off the table.” He carried on to say that France understands how important the Nagorno-Karabakh question is for Armenia, but after 17 years of bloodshed and anger Yerevan and Baku should try to find a way to compromise and finally achieve a stable peace.

Sarkozy’s speech in Yerevan is even more remarkable, regarding his call on Turkey to recognize the genocide of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire at the beginning of the 20th century. The Armenian and French Presidents planted a tree near the column commemorating France’s recognition of the genocide in 2001. “Turkey is big enough a country to look upon its history in an adequate manner and recognize its mistakes,” Sarkozy said, citing Germany as an example worthy of following. “if Turkey doesn’t recognize the genocide, France will have to change its political and economic attitude towards the country,” he added.

However, it is ironic that the French President touches upon such a topic while France has never apologized to Algeria for mass killings of insurgents in 1945.

Sarkozy’s plea is also unlikely to be implemented: it would be economically unwise to introduce sanctions against a country, with which a turnover of 15 billion dollars is expected for 2012. And if France, say, adopts a law on the legal prosecution of those who deny the Armenian genocide, it would most likely spoil its relations with NATO rather than influence Turkey’s position.

There is no doubt that this sudden activation of anti-Turkish rhetoric is connected to Sarkozy’s shaky position on the internal political scene, where the voters are not satisfied with the position he assumed regarding the events in Libya. The ruling party has already failed dramatically during the primaries, while Sarkozy himself is 20% behind his main rival. So it is possible that Sarkosy is trying to win the affections of ethnic Armenian French citizens by this harsh address to Ankara. If this is true, then how could one expect such a politician to be an impartial mediator in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?..

Orkhan Sattarov, exclusively to VK