A Kazakh colleague of mine, a very smart and informed man, has recently noted that when I talk to Turkish officials I often hear Ottoman drums. If intellectuals run into such extremes, what to say about media that fear Turkic integration as a new neo-Ottoman threat in the last months?
We cannot say that there is no reason to worry. Modern Turkey is a book like a book being written. We cannot open the last page and see what it will end up with. Ankara lacks predictability, Erdogan appears in tabloids too often (but not as Berlusconi). The list of world politicians upset with the Turkish prime minister is quite long. The Israeli conflict is an example. Erdogan is eager to form friendly ties with his Turkic brothers but skeptics wonder why.
The answer lies within the surface. The Turkish elite has acknowledged own opportunities, growth potential that cannot be realized. Destroying foundation of the former regime, weakening the military, that have been playing the key role in the system of political institutions since Ataturk, Erdogan and his supporters of Islamists are building up a new Turkey, a regional leader striving for equal chances with Moscow, Washington, Brussels in the “big game”.
Cultural and economic integration of Turkic peoples is obviously an essential aspect. But Ankara hardly expects Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan to turn into a priority zone of influence through mechanisms of TURKSOY and development of Turkish-Kazakh higher education centers.
Even in 1990s, when the Central African Republic had openings of Turkish universities and ambitions of Turkish construction companies it was clear that it was a temporary event. It was similar as with the Soviet Union, until its republics realized the edge and started growth (some were faster, some have not reached the surface yet).
Arrival of China to the region and new Russian economic projects make prospects for Turkish expansion rather dim, even if it were a priority goal for the local elite. Turkish ambitions should not be feared, especially by Russia, which competes with foreign states to test its own abilities, and should not be a reason for panic. It is that weak that fear. The Kremlin again strives to become the strongest on the post-soviet space. We should concentrate on phobias and fears. Concerning the summit of Turkic states, the majority says its decisions will be forgotten until the next meeting, such as most decisions of the CIS meetings.
Author: Alexey Vlasov exclusively for VK
