It seems the world is beginning to understand that the situation in Libya after the National Transitional Council succeeded in the war has nothing in common with democracy. Moreover, the prospects of establishing a government that can provide the population with basic human rights are quite elusive.
First of all, establishing a law-governed state cannot begin with the lynching of the former leader, even though a dictator like Muammar Gaddafi. Secondly, if this has already happened, a criminal case should be initiated, and the murderers should be punished according to law. The head of the NTC, Mustafa Abdeljalil, promised to form a commission to investigate Gaddafi’s death. The question is whether it will turn into a farce or not.
It appears a farce will take place. It was disgusting to exhibit the corpses of the colonel, his son and the former minister of defense of Libya in a cold store at one of Misrata’s malls. Such actions make us think about the moral composition of the new team in office, even though it was done under democratic slogans. Meanwhile, the American organisation Human Rights Watch reported that 53 corpses were found in the empty hotel of Sirte, supposedly supporters of Gaddafi, who were killed by the NTC forces after they had occupied the city. No comment.
The other threat is the possibility of an Afghan model in Libya: in the context of chaos, anarchy and enormous quantities of weapons belonging to the population, it can be expected that Islamist extremists will come to office. Libyan society might consider them to be stable and competent authorities, which is better than chaos. In addition, in North Africa the Islamists are the most disciplined and powerful opposition force. Many experts have expressed these worries. It appears the forecast has started to come true. APA reports that Mustafa Abdeljalil said Libya will be governed by Islamic laws, and any law that contradicts Shariah law will be cancelled. For example, the law on prohibition of plural marriages will be cancelled.
The European Council has already reacted to the statement. It urged Libya to “respect human rights and democratic principles” against the background of the new authority's statements on establishing the state according to Shariah.
The German professor Gunter Meier said that the threat coming from Islamists and their role in the new political space of Libya after the collapse of Gaddafi’s regime is huge. The conflict between Islamists and the civil forces led to the failure of efforts to establish a transitional government. Mahmud Jibril, the deputy chairman of the NTC, who was due to head the transitional government, turned down the position because of internal pressure on him. On the one hand, he is blamed for his close cooperation with Gaddafi in the past. On the other hand, Islamists believe that he has too much US support, the expert believes. However, Meier doesn’t think a new civil war will be started in the country.
A less alarming situation has taken shape in Tunisia, where the An-Nahada party came top in the parliamentary elections. According to their preliminary data, the party would get about 40% of the vote. It is interesting that representatives of the party stated ahead of the elections that they have no intention of launching Shariah in the country. It is possible that under An-Nahda management Tunisia will develop along the lines of the Turkish model, which combines Islamic values and democracy. However, Tunisian society has serious doubts about sincerity of An-Nahda's intentions. Moreover, the Turkish model hasn’t been formed yet. It is still developing. Tunisia is not Turkey. Turkey has been undergoing Western democratic development for decades. In Tunisia the political system is only now being formed. The positions of civil parties will be very important for the country. It will define whether the Islamists will consider civil principles or not.
Though the political structures of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya are dim, most experts are changing their views on the Arab Spring from positive to negative. Europe suddenly understood that opposition in dictatorial countries comes from the same society and has no deep democratic traditions. It is obvious that the Arab Spring is only a chance for democracy to triumph, but not the triumph itself.
Orkhan Sattarov.
