The transformation in minds and orientation of the political elite began long after the collapse of the USSR. At first, the pro-Russian Armenian elite was the majority. The authorities of Armenia in 1990-1991 demarcated the Soviet administration from the Russian one. Thus, when the USSR collapsed, relations with the Russian authorities, headed by Boris Yeltsin, remained close.
However, soon embassies of foreign countries appeared in Armenia, and young people gained an opportunity to study abroad. At first only few people used it, but later number of such people began to grow. Decline in all spheres of life in the former Soviet space, including education, led to the situation when people graduated from Western universities became active participants of political life and members of parties. During recent 10-12 years correlation between forces in political elite has changed due to growth of pro-Western tendencies.
Today some observers repeat that instead of pro-Russian communists came pro-Western liberals. However, it would be better to say that instead of communists pragmatic politicians with wider views on the situation came.
According to the head of the Analyst Center on globalization and regional development, Stepan Grigoryan, during recent 10 years serious changes in elite’s views took place. Time of more critical attitude to Russia began: “Today in elite there are many people, who view Armenian interests from various points. The position is shifting from Russian-centric to Armenian-centric. Questions of integration with the EU and cooperation with NATO appeared in political programs of liberal and socialist character. Balance is obvious: any political force says about necessity of cooperation with the USA, European integration, and extension of links with NATO. One-sidedness is yielding to diversified approach.”
Armenia provided balanced policy under Levon Ter-Petrosyan and Robert Kocharyan, as well as under Serge Sargsyan. Moreover, the opposition, which is ready to come to office, shows nor pro-Russian neither pro-Western orientation.
“The main part of elite understands that providing of balanced policy between Russia and Western countries is Armenia’s fate. Our country finds itself in a difficult geopolitical situation in a difficult region, considering the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It is difficult to be absolutely pro-Russian or pro-Western,” the political observer David Petrosyan thinks.
Thus, forces, which feel political responsibility, act carefully and composedly. At the same time, in Armenia one-sided statements directed against West or Russia are still heard. But these statements are voiced by leaders of political parties, which have no real influence in political life. Armenian communists speak about necessity of pro-Russian orientation and animosity to American imperialism. The chairman of the party New Times, Aram Karapetyan, presents himself as a pro-Russian politician, but he would hardly come to office. Probably they make such statements, because they don’t feel any responsibility.
Furthermore, in the Armenian political space there are some forces, which stand for pro-Western and pro-American direction. For example, Free Democrats, a party established in August. Some politicians from Armenian National Movement, which is the basis of opposition ANC, moved to this party. (But Free Democrats is not included to ANC). However, influence of the party is not great as well. Of course, in Armenia criticism of some political steps by Russia is heard, but no force would come out with anti-Russian or anti-American mottos directly.
Developments of 2008, when West did nothing to help Georgia, confirmed reality of Armenian society and elite’s approach: “No conflicts with Russia, as the US is far away, but it is awkward to quarrel with the US, as powerful and unfriendly Turkey is near.” Pragmatism prevails in elite and society.
In June the Caucasus Institute held analysis of publications in Armenian mass media, aimed at revealing tendencies in Armenian society. According to the results of the research, Armenians consider Russia and Iran as allies, the EU and the US as desired allies, Georgia as a difficult neighbor, and Turkey and Azerbaijan as unfriendly countries. Foreign policy is formed not only due to geopolitical factors, but also tendencies in society, which are developing on the grounds of existing realia.
Thus, certain influence by Russia and West is accepted in Armenian society tolerantly, which is confirmed by growth of influence of English, while Russian is still a relevant language. Almost all Armenian Internet periodicals are published in three languages: Armenian, English and Russian, two latter are studied from second year in elementary school.
Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to VK.
