Earlier this week, the EU representative on foreign affairs and security policy, Catherine Ashton, visited Baku. The head of the foreign ministry of Azerbaijan, Elmar Mamedyarov, said that they discussed prospects of cooperation development between the EU and Azerbaijan, including the energy sphere, within the program Eastern Partnership. The editor-in-chief of VK, Aleksey Vlasov, expresses his views on the prospects for this organization, which was founded several years ago for adaptation of former Soviet republics to EU standards.
In the near future entry to the EU will be closed for the former Soviet republics, despite the aspirations of Ukraine and Georgia for quick European integration. At the same time Europe doesn’t decline partnership in the sphere of the economy, security and settlement of frozen conflicts, for bringing to the former Soviet republics (there are only six countries in the structure of the Eastern Partnership) the legal standards of mechanisms of functioning institutions, like in Europe.
Ukraine achieved the biggest success in integration within the Eastern Partnership. It is to sign the agreement on economic aspects of cooperation with the European Union. For some countries of the six (Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Armenia, Belarus and Azerbaijan), simplification of the visa regime is of interest. However, no serious results have been achieved in this sphere yet.
After the summit of the Eastern Partnership it seems that there are only two countries in Europe, Germany and Poland, which support the CIS countries in more active cooperation with the European countries, as the UK and France and their leaders have in fact shifted duties for implementation of the Eastern Partnership programs, including financing duties, to the main lobbyists for bringing the CIS closer to the EU, I mean Warsaw and Berlin.
Secondly, the summit saw numerous rows. At the beginning, Alexander Lukashenko and the Belarusian delegation left the summit, as their ambassador wasn’t invited to the gala dinner after the first day of the forum. Statements by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the Western media, which covered the summit, were very critical of the Timoshenko case and a possible harsh penalty for the former prime minister of Ukraine. This could influence the terms of signing the agreement between Ukraine and the EU.
We still see that there are more questions than answers. There is no answer to the question of the status of Russia in this process. The Georgian delegation tried to present the situation as the Eastern Partnership being a way of separating the former Soviet republics from Russia. Mikhail Saakashvili hinted to Europe that if it holds Lukashenko off, Belarus will never get rid of Russian influence, which is primarily disadvantageous for the European Union.
It is difficult to say when we will get answers to these questions. However, probably a clash within the Eastern Partnership will take place. Georgia, Azerbaijan and Moldova will strive for active cooperation with the EU, while Armenia and Belarus will act more carefully, due to the position of Russia in this sphere.
And the key intrigue is Ukraine. What path will Ukraine choose? Will Yanukovich continue the direction of cooperation with the EU, which was defined by his predecessor Viktor Yuschenko? I think we will hear answers to these questions in 2012. This year might be a difficult challenge for the European Union, which has economic, social and financial problems, which could lead to an effort to withdraw into national compartments rather than extending European space. Some European sceptics are calling for this in the leading countries of Europe, i.e. Germany, Great Britain, Italy and France.
Aleksey Vlasov. Exclusively to VK
