Russian parliamentary elections were not only an important political event for the country, they also became a focus of European attention. And this is only natural if we take the level of EU-Russian political and economic cooperation into account. Just recently Europe criticized the Russian ruling "tandem’s" decision to nominate Vladimir Putin as presidential candidate for the 2012 elections. Europe saw Medvedev as a more liberal leader who could modernize and liberalize Russia. However, when it turned out that all the disagreements or even rivalry between the Russian leaders – Putin and Medvedev – were nothing but a media canard, European politicians became even more sceptical about Russia’s leading political force – the ‘United Russia’ party. That is one reason for the generally negative European response to the parliamentary election results. EU journalists called the unexpectedly low ‘United Russia’ results a ‘slap in Putin’s face’.
Well-known German political expert Cornelius Ohmann told Taz journalists that “the ‘United Russia’ party won only 50%, despite all the pressure, propaganda and even falsifications that took place. It can only be explained in one way: the majority of Russian people are fed up with Putin. And communist leader Gennadiy Zyuganov is correct when he says that de facto the ruling party won only one third of the votes.” The expert deems that the nomination of Vladimir Putin as presidential candidate had a negative effect on ‘United Russia’s’ popularity and thus on the results of the parliamentary elections. According to Ohmann, Medvedev now has to be the one to deal with this mess and try to revive ‘United Russia’s’ reputation, while Putin distances himself from the party and will run for the presidency as an ‘independent candidate’ from his ‘Popular Front’.
Professor Gerhart Mangott, Austrian expert on Russia, expressed a similar opinion. According to him, the loss of some 15% of votes by the ‘United Russia’ party (as compared to the previous parliamentary elections) took everyone by surprise. “Of course, the people’s discontent with corruption and economic and social problems was expected to have certain impact on the ruling party’s popularity, but such a low rating – even despite all manipulations – is striking,” Mr Mangott said in an interview to an Austrian TV-channel. The professor noted that one can change the election’s outcome by illegal manipulations by some 5-7% on election day, but not more. As for the consolidation of the Communist Party, the expert explained it by two factors. Firstly, the party managed to win the support of those unsatisfied with their social status (elderly people and marginalised youth). Secondly, nationalist trends are now very popular in Russia and the communists used them. Mr Mangott suggested that, despite all the difficulties, Mr Putin is likely to win already in the first round in the 2012 elections, as Putin’s personal rating is much higher than that of the ‘United Russia’ party. Moreover, the PM is now distancing himself from the ruling party, which is rapidly losing its popularity.
Another German expert on Russia, Alexander Rhar, was not at all surprised by the election’s outcome. He explained it by the fact that Russia suffered badly from the negative effects of the world financial crisis and the ruling party lost popular support to the left-oriented forces. “This result of ‘United Russia’ is a personal shame for Putin and Medvedev,” the expert told MDR radio station. Unlike Mr Mangott and Mr Ohmann, Mr Rhar doesn’t believe that massive frauds took place during the elections. According to him, each Russian election becomes more democratic than the previous one, and this time the opposition was given each and every opportunity to promote its point of view, including TV-debates. However, Mr Rhar agrees that some violations, such as using administrative resources, were committed by the ruling party. However, if ‘United Russia’ wishes to regain its leading position it will have to adapt to the changing conditions and to cooperate with opposition forces.
As you see, even though the European view on the Russian elections remains traditionally critical, it is unlikely that Europe would doubt the legitimacy of the elections and their results. There are some concerns, however, that the drop in ‘UR’s’ rating might hamper Russian-EU relations. For example, the uncompromising position of the Russian government on the subject of a European missile defense system could be explained by Russia’s domestic political problems: the spectre of the ‘Cold War’ could win the UR some real political points.
Of course, Russia is unlikely to be subjected to the same deal of pressure by the EU as Belarus is. It is still an important political and economic partner of the EU. However, the risk of inner instability is growing. Despite the claims of some Russian official’s, European experts don’t believe that an ‘orange revolution’ scenario could be ‘imported’. However, certain parallels with the ‘Arab spring’ event have already been drawn and experts suggest that Putin’s new presidential term won’t be easy. However, aggressive anti-western rhetoric could do more harm than good to the Russian government and could damage Russian-EU relations on a greater scale than any election fraud allegations. And if push comes to shove, numerous opposition activists’ videos and notes about massive electoral frauds might suddenly become more important and plausible to the EU officials than they are now.
By Orkhan Sattarov, exclusively to VK
