The bill by the French Senate on criminal prosecution for denying the Armenian genocide could cause a serious cooling in Turkish-French relations. While the president of Turkey is trying to get on the phone to his French colleague, Turkish diplomatic sources state that relations with Paris could be cut to a minimum, as happened with Israel. At the same time, Turkey is preparing to initiate a campaign for recognition of French activity in Algeria (1950-1958) and Rwanda (1994) as genocide. Opposition deputies have already presented a corresponding bill for the Turkish parliament's consideration. The bill presupposes a 2-year prison sentence and 90 thousand-euro fine for denying these genocides. The authorities of Rwanda have for many years been accusing France of supporting the Tutsi genocide in the country, and the evidence is very serious.
Moreover, the Turkish side thinks that historic events should be appraised by historians. The new bill contradicts the norms of freedom of speech and scientific research and seriously restricts the research capabilities of the events of 1915. Furthermore, during his visit to Turkey French foreign minister Alain Juppé stated that the events of 1915 are “a challenge” and suggested discussing them in France.
The decision by the Senate was not a surprise to most analysts. French president Nicolas Sarkozy announced this step during his visit to Armenia in October 2011. “If such a major country as Turkey recognizes the dark pages of its history and the Armenian genocide, Armenia and France will consider it as a great breakthrough. There cannot be reconciliation in denying the suffering of another side. If Turkey doesn’t take this step and openly denies the genocide, France will change its laws and criminalize the deniers,” Sarkozy said.
Turkey hasn’t hid its indignation. Turkish foreign minister Ahmed Davutoglu said that “former colonial empires have no right to teach Turkey how to treat its own history.” According to him, France should reconsider its past, especially its relations with African countries.
Only three months have passed since that visit and the positions of France and Turkey haven’t changed. In late November the parliament of Slovakia adopted a similar law. However, the international mass media didn’t pay much attention to it, and the Turkish reaction wasn’t as tough as that towards France. Of course, the importance of France differs from Slovakia’s, but the main point is the heavy “baggage” of Turkish-French relations in recent years. France is the most eager opponent of Turkey’s accession to the EU. Moreover, Sarkozy didn’t invite Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan to the session on Libya ahead of the military campaign against the regime. Probably this was a reason why Erdogan didn’t come to the second session on Libya after Gaddafi was deposed.
Of course, a strong Armenian lobby influences French policy toward Turkey. France's minister for European affairs, Jean Leonetti, had to state that “there is no pre-election content in the French bill on criminalization of denial of the Armenian genocide.” “If this were done to gain the Armenian Community’s votes, the opposition wouldn’t vote for the document,” Le Figaro cites the minister. However, this assurance doesn't sound very convincing. Neither the ruling party nor the opposition wants to lose Armenian votes.
On the other hand, it is the ruling party that will gain most of the votes, as its deputy has proposed the bill. Of course, the election factor and the powerful positions of the Armenian lobby are playing a significant role. Some experts think that France and Turkey oppose each other in the fight for influence in the Middle East, which negatively influenced bilateral relations.
So Turkish diplomacy is undergoing a difficult period, as international responsibility for the genocide falls on Turkey. At the same time, Ankara is improving diplomatic efforts and gaining the support of its friends for taking response measures against France. The first reaction came from Azerbaijan, where the vice-speaker of the parliament, Ziyafet Askerov, stated that adoption of the bill by the Senate could cause serious damage to Azerbaijani-French relations. A similar appraisal was given by the administration of the Azerbaijani president.
There is another aspect to the issue. France is one of the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group on a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict. Criminal prosecution for denying the Armenian genocide only proves that France is influenced by the Armenian lobby, which doesn’t reflect positively on trust in the Minsk Group. On the other hand, Baku has an opportunity to show Ankara that it supports its position on “the genocide” and to demand continuation of the policy of non-ratification of the Zurich protocols.
So improvement of consolidation of the Turkish and Azerbaijani positions stands France in bad stead, as it insists on ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols without considering Baku's position. That is why the current decision by Paris is connected with internal political motives rather than with a clearly-defined foreign policy line.
Orkhan Sattarov. Exclusively to VK
