Last Sunday early parliamentary elections were held in Kazakhstan. The most interesting issue was what party would be second after the presidential party Nur Otan. The final results say three parties will enter the parliament: Nur Otan – 80.99%, Ak Zhol – 7.47%, Communist Peoples Party of Kazakhstan (CPPK) – 7.19%. International observers from the Parliamentary Assembly of the CIS didn’t register any serious violations. The missions of the OSCE PA and the ODIHR called the elections illegitimate.
Most Western media gave no broad comments. They listed parties’ percent of votes and stated the opposition complains of numerous violations. Deutsche Welle forecasted: “It is not a surprise that the opposition leaders of Social-Democratic Party of Kazakhstan stated about their plans to launch their supporters in the streets on the next day after announcing preliminary results of the elections, i.e. on January 17th, 2012. The observers leave open a possibility that representatives of other parties will join them.”
The BBC gave the floor to Bulat Abilov, the SDPK leader, who said: “We followed the bus and recorded how these people voted. It is a turnabout. That’s how Nur Otan achieved demanded per cent;” and to representatives of Nur Otan, who denied these facts.
Statements on global falsifications seem doubtful. Kommersant published words by presidential advisor Yermuhamet Yertysbayev: “After the demonstration on Bolotnaya Square in Moscow President Nazarbayev ordered sharply not to interfere with the election process.” According to Mr. Yertysbayev, Kazakhstan needs a party, which would protect interests of businessmen. “The business layer is a great achievement of 20 years of independence. It is a new class in our country, but it is under bureaucrats. Bureaucrats dominate over businessmen, and it is a serious obstacle preventing the state’s development,” he thinks. Experts call Ak Zhol “young sister of the presidential party.” “The authorities wouldn’t let a true opposition party enter the parliament. Ak Zhol is loyal to the president. It is a second leg in the parliament,” the well-known Kazakh political scientist Dosym Satpayev explains to Kommersant.
Communists triumph in the elections was a surprise for everyone. The expert of the Central Asia, analyst of Moscow News, Arkady Dubnov, stated in an interview to Radio Svoboda: “It is a sensational result in a sense. Experts said the Communists are the only party, which opposes Nur Otan. They urged to consolidation of all ethnic groups in Kazakhstan, while other parties used nationalist slogans, which didn’t reflect Nazarbayev’s plans, as he has always stood for inter-ethnic peace and calmness. From this point of view, Communists’ presence in the parliament is beneficial for the authorities.”
Izvestia also considers the biggest surprise of the elections in Kazakhstan is that three instead of two parties surpassed the barrier of 7%. “Today voters always have to think what party can substitute “against everyone” column. The unexpected triumph of the Communists is a part of protest voting. They got support of a part of electorate, now they have to find this part,” Kazakh political scientist Ajdos Sarym told Izvistia. He thinks the Communists and Liberals will have to consolidate in some issues.
Gazeta.ru cites President Nazarbayev, who congratulated his rivals with win: “This is success not only for Nur Otan, it is success for the whole nation. Our citizens voted for stability, peace, tolerance, and friendship of multinational population. Developments in Zhanaozen, where the police shot the demonstration of striking oil-miners, united us all.”
Commenting on preliminary results of the elections for Vestnik Kavkaza, Leonid Gusev, research scientist of the International Research Institute, said that such a result was predictable, as Kazakhstan’s society is changing, as well as Russian society. The expert noted that the two oldest parties of the country with stable support of voters were elected. At the same time, the recently established party Adilet won’t enter the parliament. “It means its influence in society is weak, even though they were sure they would take second place in the elections,” the expert concluded. Speaking about systemic transformations in Kazakhstan’s internal policy, the political scientist emphasized that Ak Zhol has always been the opposition party. As for the Communist People's Party, it has a long history. Leonid Gusev thinks that an opposition mood is growing in the country. A new edition of the law stated that the second party will enter the parliament anyway, but three parties managed to surpass the 7% barrier. Leonid Gusev noted that Kazakh society had demonstrated its consolidation in the three party preferences. The elections defined the new parliamentary system for the next 5 years.
Forbes published an article headlined “In Kazakh policy its own Mikhail Prokhorov appeared.” Expert of the Center of the Central Asia and the Caucasus Research under the Institute of Oriental Sciences of the RAS, Stanislav Pritchin, drew a parallel between Russia and Kazakhstan. Like in Russia, there are 7 parties in the legal environment of Kazakhstan, which were allowed to participate in the elections. But there are some interesting differences. Official Astana was managed to turn into reality an analogue of Russian Right Cause – pro-liberal party Ak Zhol, which is oriented on middle class and business. Ahead of the elections it was headed by the well-known businessmen Azat Petrushev. The parliamentary systems of Russia and Kazakhstan are at a similar development level, but readiness for civil society establishment is higher in Russia. Developed political institutes, powerful parliament could be a serious stabilizing factor for Kazakhstan after Nazarbayev’s resignation.
Yekaterina Tesemnikova. Exclusively to VK
