Criminalization of the denial of genocide: Ankara and Paris have a chance

The crisis in relations between Ankara and Paris, triggered by the activities of Armenian lobbyists, remains one of the most actively-discussed political topics. The initiative of French President Nicolas Sarkozy to criminalize denial of the "Armenian genocide" in the Ottoman Empire in 1915 caused a storm in bilateral relations.

It is clear that the reaction was to be expected. The question is too sensitive for Turkey. First of all, it is up to historians and not politicians to answer the question of whether there was genocide of Armenians in 1915 or whether it was a failed rebellion. Secondly, the compliance of the new law to the norms of democracy is at least questionable. The law makes impossible any scholarly discussion of the events of 1915, and any scholar who does not agree with the Armenian point of view on events upon his arrival in Paris would be under the threat of arrest. Third, Turkey without reason is afraid that after the recognition of "genocide" the question of "overcoming its consequences" will be raised. That is to say that Turkey will be required not only to pay compensation to "the descendants of the victims," but also to transfer a part of the territory of Armenia, a part of East Anatolia, which was meant to become Western Armenia.

The motives of the Paris government are generally clear. Most experts believe that the "duty to the memory of the victims of genocide" and "opposition to xenophobia" is not the main concern of Paris. Sarkozy seems to have decided on the eve of the upcoming presidential elections to fulfil his original promise to Armenian voters back in 2007 - to criminalize denial of the "Armenian genocide". Half a million votes of the Armenian community in France is a valuable resource. Turkish officials also point to this fact. Even Sarkozy's main rival in the upcoming presidential elections, the socialist leader Francois Hollande, said that the current initiative to criminalize denial of "genocide" can be regarded as part of Sarkozy's pre-election campaign.

There is another popular explanation, which is, frankly, less convincing: by raising the issue of criminalizing denial of "genocide", France has decided to once again slam the door in front of Turkey and hinder its accession to the EU. However, it is not yet clear whether nails will be hammered into the coffin of the EU. The fate of European unification seems increasingly shaky and vague. The decay of the eurozone is already a reality. Against the backdrop of the huge national debt of some EU members, as well as the reduction of the long-term credit ratings of France and Austria by one point and of the credit ratings of Spain, Italy and Portugal by two points, many experts have openly warned about the coming collapse of the eurozone and return to national currencies. In this situation the Schengen Agreement is also put under doubt. Denmark, for instance, reinstalled controls on its border with Germany. Considering all these factors, it is unlikely that Turkey expected to join the EU in a short period of time.
 
Moreover, it is impossible not to notice the strengthening "Eastern vector" in Ankara's foreign policy. Apparently, Ankara, without putting an end to European integration, is pursuing a policy in the light of the Middle East and North Africa. Obviously, the balance of power and the "degree of interest" in the success of Turkey in the matter of European integration has changed and the old methods, like the previous explanations, are not suitable any longer.

But how far is Nicolas Sarkozy ready to go in his effort to enlist the support of the Armenian electorate, which has caused a storm in bilateral relations with the key country in the Mediterranean? And what is the real possibility that French historical studies of the 1915 events will be punished? After the ruling party "Union for a Popular Movement" was able to put the bill through the lower house of French Parliament at the end of last year without any problems, the final adoption of the bill in the Senate is already predetermined. Indeed, the ruling party and the socialists who represent the majority in the Senate, at various times acted in support of the law criminalizing genocide. That is why the news that on January 18 the constitutional committee of the French Senate considered the bill "unacceptable" was somewhat unexpected. The chairman of the commission, socialist party member Jean-Pierre Souhayr, spoke against the bill on criminalization. He was supported by 23 deputies. But should we exaggerate the importance of this factor? Some media wrongly portray this event as almost a diplomatic success of Turkey and a sure sign that the "Armenian" bill will certainly fail in the Senate vote on Monday. However, many experts still believe that the chances that the bill will be adopted are very high. Despite the fact that all parties have pragmatically-minded politicians with a critical approach to the bill, the majority of senators are still going to vote in its favour, according to some preliminary estimates. In any case, the head of the socialist faction in the Senate has already announced that the Socialists would vote "yes" or abstain.

Conservatives, the parliamentary majority, would support the bill. However they hold 262 votes out of 348. The position of centrists and the communists is not fully clear. The fact that the socialist Souhayr openly opposed the adoption of a law criminalizing denial of the "genocide", when the chairman of the Socialist faction assured that the bill will be supported by socialists, is an alarm bell for bill lobbyists.  Ankara has had a chance to mobilize its diplomatic efforts and influence the opinion of ordinary senators in France. If the law is adopted, it will cease relations between Turkey and France for a while.

It is obvious that today the future of Turkish-French relations depends on Paris far more than on Ankara. Moreover, the French politicians, despite being focused on Europe, cannot understand the extent of Turkey's influence on the crisis in Syria, the Iranian issue and the politics in the Middle East and North Africa as a whole. Finally, France, which lost one point in the rating of its long-term creditability, might understand that contracts on the construction of nuclear power plants and delivery of Airbuses are far more important than Armenian voters. Either way, Paris will take the decision on January 23. Very soon it will become clear which opinion is going to prevail in the French capital.