Yesterday, Dmitry Medvedev, Ilham Aliyev and Serge Sargsyan met in Sochi for the tenth time. After this, the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia expressed a readiness to speed up agreement on the basic principles of the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement. The Karabakh conflict is an open wound of the whole Caucasus. VK talked to the editor-in-chief of the independent military-analysis magazine Arsenali Irakly Aladashvili and the head of the Nationalism and Conflicts Research Institute Paata Zakareshvili about prospects of the problem’s solution and possible developments.
Irakly Aladashvili
The current situation over Nagorny Karabakh can be called “a frozen conflict” with a prospect for unfreezing. The reality is sad. Everyday clashes takes place in the conflict zone, including serious ones. Such incidents might turn into a lareg-scale military conflict.
The situation is often compared with the events in other conflict zones. Considering the military aspect only, the conflict in Abkhazia was unique, because battles took place on earth, in the air and on the water.
As for the political aspect, in Karabakh two almost equal in scale and potential states, Armenia and Azerbaijan, oppose each other. In our case three players act officially – Georgia, local separatists and Russia. Of course, there is the self-appointed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, which considers itself as a side in the conflict, but in reality there are two sides only – Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Abkhazia and South Ossetia are directly supported by the regular Russian army. Before August 2008 this support was indirect, after the war it became official. Azerbaijan has a clear position – 20% of its territory is occupied by Armenia. As for settlement of the conflict, it is doubtful that the objective could be reached by diplomatic talks. We had a frozen conflict either, negotiations had been lasting for many years, and we can see results of them. The main player, just like in our case, is Russia, and Russia won’t let Armenia lose everything it took over. The role of the West is minimal. Effectiveness of the OSCE Minsk Group is discredited by both sides of the conflict.
Theoretically peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is possible only if Armenia and Azerbaijan meet each other halfway and find a compromise. However, there are no chances for it. As for renewal of the war, such threat exists, especially in the context of the armament race. Azerbaijan purchases armament all over the world, Armenia is mainly supplied by Russia.
Armenia has a great resource – its affluent Diasporas in the USA and France. During the war 1992-1994 Diasporas had been working very actively. They are working today to make the US impose on Azerbaijan the idea of inadmissibility of the war renewal. The war in August 2008 has changed a lot – the Azerbaijani authorities saw how Russia might act, and it became an important factor preventing the war.
Azerbaijan is not alone, of course. It is supported by Turkey. However, Ankara has serious internal and foreign political problems as the moment. Turkey is unique by the fact that its military elite is more civilized and democratic than the political class in general. Turkish militaries have several times overthrown the power to prevent coming of Islamists. But now historic turning point is taking place – purge of the Turkish military elite. Thus, Turkey has its own problems, and it will hardly oppose Russia in the South Caucasus.
In case of the war renewal, both sides will try to capture maximum territories in a shortest term, as Yerevan and Baku understand that the international forces will interfere and try to prevent military acts. Considering this, battles might last less than a week, and the conflict sides will be fast to capture more. The international players, first of all, Russia, won’t let the war last more than several days.
Paata Zakareshvili
I think there are no chances for war renewal in Nagorny Karabakh in nearest 3-4 years, because the world is interested in stability and peace in the region. First of all, Russia and other co-chairs of the Minsk Group, the US and France, are interested in it. Maintenance of status quo is satisfying for both sides of the conflict despite their tough statements.
The authorities of Armenia and Azerbaijan cooperate with the international organizations and accept civilized rules of the game. Both sides haven’t violated their promises and duties toward the international partners in recent years. Nobody needs war. War is a chaos. Everybody understands that political dividends can be achieved by the threat of war, but not by war itself. That is why it is hardly war renews in nearest years. At the same time, there is little but clear dynamic in negotiations. Neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan is interested in wrecking of status quo.
I said that in Abkhazia and South Ossetia Georgia should take steps toward them, if it isn’t enough, it should take new steps and so on. However, this model cannot be applied in Karabakh: here one side should take a step and another side should take a step in response.
The point is Abkhazia and South Ossetia are not equal to Georgia. Georgia is an independent state recognized by all countries in the world, while independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is recognized by Russia and few small states only.
At the moment, the ball is on the Armenian side. If Armenia sets free at least two occupied regions around Nagorny Karabakh, the process will be driven from the dead-lock. Armenia can state that it leaves the regions under the control of the international organizations and wait for response actions by Azerbaijan.
Armenia said that the conflict is between Azerbaijan and Nagorny Karabakh. It is not so. Such attitude shows the sides are not ready to settle the conflict. If the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is settled, problems between Azerbaijan and Nagorny Karabakh will be solved as well.
I don’t think the conflict around Nagorny Karabakh is insoluble, like the conflict between Israel and Palestine. I’m sure war cannot solve the problem. War will lead to chaos in Azerbaijan, Armenia and the whole region, while the aim wouldn’t be achieved. Azerbaijan understands it. And the authorities of Azerbaijan have no intention to start the war.
In general, the process around Nagorny Karabakh is developing in direction of reasonability rather than madness and war. In Armenian and Azerbaijani societies understanding of necessity of the way out of the dead-lock is ripping. That is why I’m sure there will be no new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the nearest future.
Georgy Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi. Exclusively to VK
