While the situation over the adoption in France of the bill on the criminalization of denying the Armenian genocide becomes tense, it is interesting to follow the development of relations between four countries – France, Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan. Especially when these concern the neutrality of Paris as a co-chair of the Minsk Group of the OSCE, which deals with the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
It was Ankara that spoke first about the pro-Armenian position of France and its doubtful presence among the mediators on Karabakh. Baku wasn’t the first to do so, though it is a direct participant in the conflict. President of Turkey Gul and the Foreign Minister Dovutoglu stated that France cannot be a co-chair of the Minsk Group anymore. The Foreign Minister told CNN Turk: “There are only two nations that are worried about the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict – Russians and Turks. The President of France made a two-day visit to Armenia, while in Azerbaijan he stayed for a couple of hours only. He openly demonstrated bias. I state that France cannot provide a mediation mission any more.”
The Foreign Minister of Turkey emphasized that he will address the Minsk Group: “We will ask them about the rights of brotherly Azerbaijan, 20% of whose territories are being occupied. It is high time discuss this. Turkey should be a full member of the Group or France should leave it. That is the Turkish position.” In addition, the ambassador of Turkey to Azerbaijan, Hulusi Kylydj, stated that further membership of France in the Minsk Group is unacceptable too.
The demand for France to be withdrawn from the Minsk Group is a realized step by the Turkish diplomacy. In this way, Ankara hints at its role of a “big brother” in relations with Azerbaijan. Moreover, such a step is aimed at crossing out very unpleasant memories about Baku’s suspicions that Ankara is ready for normalization of relations with Armenia before a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
The expected negative reaction by Yerevan wasn’t long in coming: “We have many times stated that if Turkey wants to help the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, it should stay away and not interfere. Turkey cannot decide which country should stay or leave the Minsk Group. I don’t think such an approach will help the Karabakh process. But it is typical for Turkey: you turn it out the door, it tries to enter through the window,” Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandyan stated, crossing the line of diplomatic ethics.
However, many experts note that Baku reacted calmly to Turkey’s demands. Azerbaijan spoke against the French bill firmly. The Foreign Ministry criticized “the legislative initiative” twice: after the bill was adopted by the National Assembly, and after it was done by the Senate. The Parliament of Azerbaijan also criticized the attempt to criminalize denying the Armenian genocide. There were many demonstrations in Baku against the bill and for Turkey. But the situation is entirely different with recalling France from the Minsk Group. The theme is heavily discussed by the mass media, including pro-government ones, and experts.
Despite plenty of pure signals of support for Turkey, there is no clear position by the Azerbaijani state on the issue of recalling France from the Minsk Group. The Press-Secretary of the Foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan, Elman Abdullayev, commented on the situation keeping with the best diplomatic traditions: “The format of the OSCE Minsk Group is not changed at the moment. However, adoption of the bill on criminalization of denying Armenian genocide by the French Senate negatively influences the neutrality of the country.”
The deputy chairman of the ruling party Yeni Azerbaijan, Ali Akhmedov, said: “Unfortunately, France, which provides an important mediation mission, is not able to be what it seems and is not able to seem what it is. In this situation the most acceptable variant is that France leaves the Minsk Group, as it lost the moral right to provide mediation. Azerbaijan has lost trust in the Minsk Group.”
Along with the statement by Akhmedov, the head of the parliament, Safa Mirzoyev, said: “There are no legal or procedural rules for changing a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group. Probably at some moment it was done on purpose so that the co-chairs cannot be changed.”
The vice-speaker, Bakhar Muradova, noted that along with the three co-chairs there are 11 countries in the Minsk Group, which can raise the question on changing of a co-chair. “At the moment the Azerbaijani side is not satisfied with the work of the Minsk Group, as it has no results. However, it doesn’t consider changing the co-chairs or dissolution of the structure to be the right thing. Our position is that not only Turkey, but also other countries criticize the activity of the co-chairs and make them provide their mission. Probably in this case the co-chairs would reconsider their work and take serious steps on settlement of the problem,” she summed up.
Baku can’t help but think what could be a real alternative to the Minsk Group. First of all, the mediation mission by Russia occurs. However, it cannot be called successful either. The failure of negotiations in Kazan is remembered by many. That is why Azerbaijan is trying to make the Minsk Group work, rather than shut the door in its face.
It is notable that Turkey hasn’t addressed the Minsk Group officially, demanding changing the co-chair. At the moment only loud words are heard. Turkey is interested in recalling France from the Minsk Group not because it cares a great deal about Azerbaijan, but because it would launch serious foreign political damage to Paris – more serious than annuling contracts with French companies. Recalling France from the OSCE Minsk Group would limit its influence in the region, while Turkey would improve its positions in the Caucasus, including Azerbaijan.
The silence of official Baku is understandable. Azerbaijan, as well as Turkey, has its own interests. First of all, there is a real chance the bill on criminalization of denying the Armenian genocide will be cancelled by the Constitutional Court of France. President Gul expressed hope that the decision will be fair, and Erdogan stopped threatening France with various sanctions – the country is waiting for the Court’s decision.
Azerbaijan is not eager to give a diplomatic slap to one of the world's leaders. Before the verdict by the Constitutional Court is made, Azerbaijan won’t take any sharp steps. However, it is difficult to predict how events will develop in France. Paris has to decide what kind of relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan it wants to have.
Orkhan Sattarov, exclusively to VK
