Moscow mediatory mission in Syria

After the West failed to advance the ‘Moroccan’ resolution on Syria, the objectiveness of which was called into question by Moscow and Beijing, at the UN Security council, a new wave of diplomatic activity aimed at resolving the Syrian crisis has arisen. Russia and China were discontent with the one-sided view of that resolution that blamed all the violence on Bashar Assad’s regime, ignoring the existence of thousands of armed rebels.
As Russian FM Sergei Lavrov commented, when the resolution was being compiled, Russia suggested that the demands to remove armed units from cities and towns would be addressed not only to the official government, but to the rebels themselves. However, these demands on Assad’s opponents were not included in the final draft of the resolution. “I don’t see how it is fair to say now, after such a demarche, that it is Russia’s and China’s fault that the UN can’t stop the bloodshed in Syria. We only stopped armed rebels from completely occupying the cities and towns. And if it is what the authors of the resolution want – they should say so directly,” Lavrov said.

It is interesting that western diplomats haven’t yet made any comments on Russia’s proposal to call the armed opposition to answer for the violence as well. It is possible that this argument undermines the concept of the illegitimacy of Assad’s regime, promoted by the US, that allows the West to demand his unconditional resignation. However, it would be useful to remember that the legitimacy of any regime is defined by its level of popular support. Despite continuous protests, Bashar Assad still enjoys the support of the majority of the Syrian population. For example, the German media agency Focus sites the results of Doha Debates polls indicating that in December 55% of Syrians supported Assad. The inquiry was financed by Qatar, which stands against the Damascus regime, so Focus hints that it is quite possible that the figure is even understated.
According to a German expert from the Global and Regional Research Institute, Andre Bank, this high percentage could be partially explained by people’s fear of repression, but it is also due to the fear of the consequences of rapid regime change. “People have the unfortunate examples of Iraq and Lebanon in front of their eyes,” the expert explained.

Today the world media is focusing on the visit by Russian FM Sergei Lavrov and the head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service Mikhail Fradkov to Damascus. Their arrival in the Syrian capital was greeted by thousands of demonstrators-supporters of Bashar Assad.
Russia is ready to support the LAG’s plan of Syrian conflict resolution, Lavrov said during his visit to Damascus. He also said that negotiations with Assad were a success and that the Syrian leader is ready to establish dialogue with all political forces in the country. Assad says he has no objections to LAG’s observers presence in the country and that he will organize a referendum on the new Constitution project soon.
It is interesting that after the UN resolution was blocked, all world powers are interested in Russian diplomatic efforts, while Russia has a chance to prove that it is not a ‘destructive element’ in the UN Security Council, as it is being presented. Also, the West needs Russia’s mediation to have any viable negotiations with Bashar Assad’s government, as all western countries have terminated their official diplomatic contacts with Damask. The fact that Assad still represents the interests of a great part of the Syrian people can’t be ignored, so the Kremlin’s position seems to be the most adequate and efficient.

After Lavrov and Fradkov left Damascus, the Russian President told his French counterpart and the Turkish PM about the results of the mission on the phone. In his conversation with the Turkish PM Medvedev stressed the possible unique role of Turkey in this conflict’s management and in promotion of civic dialogue in Syria and Erdogan agreed to participate in the coordination process along with Moscow. However, Lavrov is yet to contact his American counterpart.

It seems that Russia decided to take up a mediatory mission in Syria and chose Turkey as its main partner in this cause. The possible effectiveness of this venture is still unclear, as Ankara is persistent in removing Assad from power. The calls from certain US Senators to supply the Syrian rebels with armaments also don’t do the peace process any good.

Nevertheless, Russian and Turkish partnership in mediating the Syrian conflict for now is the only realistic way of the conflict’s peaceful resolution.