The Foreign Minister of Russia, Sergey Lavrov, and the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Mikhail Fradkov, showed by their visit to Damascus that it is too early to write off President of Syria Bashar Assad. Moreover, Moscow didn’t refuse cooperation with the Syrian President in the internal political conflict in the country, which causes the West’s annoyance. Furthermore, demonstrations in favor of Assad in Damascus showed that he is still popular among the population. It would be unreasonable to deal with a settlement of the Syrian conflict without consideration of this fact.
Consolidated Russian-Turkish mediation could be an effective mechanism for settlement of the crisis. Both countries have the necessary potential, political weight in the region, and pressure leverage too. Moscow has stable contact with Bashar Assad, while Ankara supervises the Syrian opposition. It would be beneficial for Turkey: its active participation in political processes in the Middle East correlates with the foreign political course of the Justice and Development Party. While Ankara could represent the interests of the Syrian opposition, Moscow could be a side which maintained warm relations with Assad’s regime. Thus, the balance of forces and interests could be fulfilled. At the same time, certain international guarantees are needed for fulfillment of Assad’s promise on reforming the constitution with the participation of the Syrian opposition. This delicate issue, according to Turkish officials, ruined the mediation of Ankara. After several rounds of talks Turkey accused President of Syria of breaking his word.
If the main aim of the world and regional powers is to stop violence in Syria and establish conditions for political reforms, the described format is the most suitable, and it should be supported by everyone. However, the opposite thing happens in reality: the mediation initiative by Russia hasn’t gained the support of the Western and Arab partners yet; the readiness of Premier of Turkey Recep Erdogan for “coordination of steps for fastest settlement of the Syrian crisis by peaceful means” seems to have no practical prospects. Probably the Turkish authorities haven’t got the green light from Washington and don’t want to act by themselves. This confirms concerns voiced by Russian diplomats after Russia had vetoed the Morocco resolution on Syria at the UN Security Council. Moscow emphasized that the resolution is aimed at overthrowing the ruling regime in Syria, which doesn’t correlate with Russia’s geopolitical interests, moreover, it would hardly contribute to stability in the region, especially considering the pessimistic experience of Iraq and Libya.
In this context the behavior of the countries of LAS is symptomatic, as they launched a new diplomatic attack against the Syrian regime. RIA Novosti reports that LAS ceased activity of its observing mission in Syria and urged sending joint UN forces for maintaining peace in the country. In a final statement, LAS “urges the Security Council of the UN to adopt the resolution on forming joint peacemaking forces if the UN and the Arab countries for controlling ceasing fire in Syria.”
LAS’s demands are focused on unilateral support for the Syrian opposition (financial and political), isolation of the regime of Bashar Assad and a military operation aimed at “stopping the violence.” Only Algeria and Lebanon didn’t support the resolution. It is notable that, along with UN peace-keepers, armed forces of the Arab countries would participate in the probable operation. Their neutrality is doubtful: first of all, this concerns Saudi Arabia and Qatar. According to the envoy of Syria in LAS, Jusef Ahmed, these two oil and gas powers “have encroached pan-Arab activity and LAS decisions, corrupting the desire of the Arab states.” He also accused Saudi Arabia and Qatar of ruining the political settlement in Syria and financing illegal armed groups, RIA Novosti reported.
The geopolitical context of the Gulf countries’ activity in the Syrian crisis is understandable. Damascus is a key ally of Tehran, which is a geopolitical rival of the Gulf states. Saudi Arabia supported the government of Yemen in suppression of riots of the local Shiahs, who were supported by Iran. The same situation took place in Bahrain.
It is interesting that Iraq, which usually considers Tehran’s interests, signed up to this statement. Meanwhile, the Minister of Internal Affairs of Iraq, Adan Al Asadi, stated that armed mujahidins penetrate from Iraq to Syria. It seems he meant militants of al-Qaeda, the leader of which, Ayman al-Zawahiri, published a video urging Muslims of Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon to support the rising of people against “the criminal regime” in Syria. Al-Zawahiri warns Muslims not to use the help of the West, which would establish its own puppet regime. Despite all the contradictions, the interests of the fundamentalists and the West, headed by the US, coincide at the moment: both of them would like to destroy the Syrian regime to extend their influence. Al-Qaeda is trying to steal the initiative from the West and guarantee that no pro-Western groups will capture power in Damascus. While al-Qaeda is sending mujihandins to the country, Israeli media reported that Kuwaiti and UK special forces had been launched into Syria, and they are training rebels. Even though the information might be fake, the Russian Foreign Ministry received it seriously.
Meanwhile, the president of Iran, Mahmud Ahmadinejad, exhorted the Arab countries not to finance the Syrian opposition. Ahmadinejad said that states which have never held fair elections are trying to write “a recipe of freedom” for others with the help of the USA. According to him, it is “one of the saddest and funniest jokes in history.”
So the mediation of Moscow is under threat due to many foreign factors: the sending of armed mujihadins of al-Qaeda to Syria; foreign support for the armed opposition groups within Syria; the possible participation of foreign special forces in the conflict. Unilateral support for the Syrian opposition by LAS, as well as tough measures by the government army, contributes to radicalization. It is difficult to say definitely how many people have been killed in Syria, and it causes speculation.
The complete refusal of the Syrian opposition to hold negotiations with the government of Assad, the isolation of which is growing (the ambassadors of the US, UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and the UAE have left the country), ruins the idea of a dialogue between major political forces of the country. A lot depends on the next steps of Russian diplomacy.
Orkhan Sattarov. Exclusively to VK
