By Susanna Petrosyan, exclusively to VK
After the local administration elections that took place in 39 communities of Armenia the general tendency for future parliamentary elections became clear. Members of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) won the polls in 35 communities, and that proves the party still has great administrative, financial and propaganda resources. The main rival of the RPA – extraparliamentary opposition Armenian National Congress (ANC) that has no resources comparable to that of the RPA, lost just a few percent on the mayor elections in the town of Razdan. Thanks to the persistent effort of the ANC, the usual mass throw in of ballots was prevented. The main instrument of the power – pre-election bribes – however remains, as the socio-economic conditions in the country remain deplorable. On the other hand, the general trend of the official politics – rendering preference to the monopolies and oppression of small and medium-sized enterprises – is unlikely to lead to any amelioration of this condition.
Another important event of the past few days that cleared up the general picture was the meeting of the ruling coalition party leaders: President Serge Sarksyan, leader of the RPA, Gagik Tsakuryan, the leader of the ‘Prosperous Armenia” party (PPA) and Arthur Bagdasaryan, the leader of the “State of Law” party. The parties agreed to participate in the elections separately, with their own lists. This decision de facto denounced the coalition memorandum signed a year ago, as it stipulated a united polling list for all three parties.
The reason for such a change is probably the strengthening of the PPA that has vast financial and considerable administrative and information resources. The regular charity activity of its leader’s foundations contributed greatly to the growth of the party’s popularity among the people.
According to political expert Armen Badalyan, today the main leverage of the PPA is the charisma of its leader businessman Gagik Tsarukyan and his image of a philanthropist, even though the party itself doesn’t conduct any charity actions. However, unlike the RPA and ANC the PPA doesn’t have many bright political figures and doesn’t have a clear program and ideology that the public could support. On the other hand, it has the resources and the image to be one of Armenia’s political ‘tycoons’ along with RPA and ANC.
The third party of the ruling coalition – the “State of Law” – on the contrary is expected to become an outsider of the polls by some experts. The party’s leader, Arthur Bagdasaryan, won 16% on the 2008 presidential polls posing himself as an opposition candidate, and his past supporters still can’t forgive him his political ‘sharp turn’. After the party’s leader decided to join the ruling coalition, a lot of regular members of the party left it. So in the end there are not many of those who believed Bagdasaryan when he promised a wide representation of his party in the new parliament. In fact, during 2009 local polls the party couldn’t even pass a 5% barrier.
One of the oldest Armenian parties - The Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) – also couldn’t pass the 5% barrier in 2009. The loss of electorate by this party-member of the ruling coalition can be explained by its illogical position towards Armenian-Turkish reconciliation process and the general worsening of the socio-economic situation in the country. The party left the coalition in April 2010 as it disagreed with the government’s decision to sign Armenian-Turkish protocols. It is hard to tell whether ARF will pass the 5% barrier in the upcoming elections: it lost its administrative resource, but still has financial and information resources and s one of the best as far as the level of inner and regional organization is concerned.
This can’t be said about another parliamentary party – the opposition ‘Heritage’ party, but it enjoys a certain level of support among the public as it has an active civic position and was very active. Yet it is also unclear, whether the “Heritage” party will be able to pass the barrier.
On the eve of the parliamentary elections the head of Armenian Political Experts Association Amayak Ovannisyan divides all political powers in Armenia into two groups: group “A” that will definitely pass the 5% barrier (for parties) and the 7% barrier (for coalitions) and group “B” (ARF, “Heritage”, “Free democrats”) that will have to fight to pass the barrier. The A-group members – RPA, ANC, PPA – will fight for the majority of the votes. The expert suggested that if the elections will be fair, the “Heritage” and the ARF have chances to enter the parliament.
