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By Orkhan Sattarov, exclusively to VK
Yet another mission of the IAEA inspectors in Iran seems to have ended in failure. The group of international experts couldn’t dispel the world’s concerns about the Iranian nuclear program. Moreover, the concerns have even deepened, as the Iranian authorities refused to let the experts visit military facilities and said that Iran wants to discuss other forms of cooperation with the IAEA other than ‘inspections’. The suspicion that Iran is working on creating nuclear weapons under the cover of a peaceful nuclear program was reflected again in the mission’s report. A few days ago the inspectors themselves admitted that the negotiations in Iran didn’t yield any positive results.
The head if the Iranian Atomic Energy Department said earlier that some 90-100 kg of uranium were enriched up to 20% concentration, but the IAEA inspectors reported that the remaining uranium falls short, and the Iranian authorities haven’t yet explained this deficit. According to the IAEA experts, the ‘missing’ uranium could be used as experimental material for nuclear weapon trials. The western experts say that 250 kilos of enriched uranium could be enough to create the weapons. Of course, the uranium has to be enriched up to 90%, but the hardest part is to enrich the ore up to 20%. German expert Stephan Uhe says Iran has already produced the major part of the materials needed for bomb creation.
Given all these circumstances, the tension between Israel and Iran is growing. Tel-Aviv doesn’t exclude the possibility of a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities, as the nuclear weapon in the hands of this Islamist regime poses, according to the Israeli authorities, a threat to the very existence of their state. However, common sense dictates that a nuclear strike against Israel would be a suicidal act for Iran, as Israel and the US would immediately strike back. Many experts are convinced that, even despite the religious fanaticism of the current Iranian government and the intention to ‘wipe Israel from the face of the earth’ explicitly expressed by President Ahmadinejad, Iran won’t dare to use atomic weapons against Israel. However, such a guarantee isn’t enough for Israel, as it has to take the factor of the regional influence of Iran into consideration, and this influence is likely to increase if Iran gets the bomb.
The head of the Berlin ‘Science and Politics’ Foundation, Volker Peters, says that the main problem in the current situation is that Iran could no longer be manipulated by threats if it gets the bomb. Teheran would also be able to provoke a Hezbollah attack against Israel – and this is actually the main concern of Israel now. The missile trials and killings of Iranian nuclear physicists are, according to the expert, Israel’s signals to the international community, saying that if it won’t stop Iran’s military nuclear program by diplomacy Israel will have to stop it in a military manner. So Mr Peters suggests that it would be better if the talks restarted as soon as possible after the parliamentary elections in Iran. However, if this process doesn’t bear any fruit in a short time, the situation might get out of hand.
It is worth noting that a military strike against Iran would have harsh consequences for Israel itself and would at least lead to a shooting war with Hezbollah. Hamas, whose leader Ismail Haniyeh visited Teheran in early February to participate in the celebration of the 33rd Islamic Revolution anniversary, would also activate its efforts in Palestine.
There is yet another factor stopping Israel from delivering a strike: the US is against it, as it is concerned with the safety of its military contingents in the Persian Gulf. In a CNN interview General Martin Dempsey, the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities would be unreasonable. According to him, it would throw back Iran’s nuclear program for a couple of years, but Israel doesn’t have the possibility to destroy the most important of Iran’s nuclear facilities. The US is also concerned that such an action taken by Israel would provoke Iran to hit American facilities and military bases in the Persian Gulf region or in Afghanistan.
The US administration believes that Iran is becoming more and more affected by the international economic sanctions, so Dempsey suggested that the anti-Iranian efforts should be concentrated in this field, He also said that Israel itself understands the US concerns and all negative implications of a strike against Iran.
The vice-admiral of the Fifth Fleet of the USN also opposes a military solution to the Iranian problem and advocates a diplomatic solution. According to the vice-admiral, it is Iran that is more active in pursuing military rhetoric and it is the Iranian side that increased its military presence in the Strait of Hormuz.
It is very interesting that the US military representatives, usually so bellicose, are now assuming a pacificatory tone. It seems they don’t want to be held hostage by the possible harsh actions of Israel. The US also doesn’t feel itself as threatened by Iran as Israel does. It is possible that Israel is trying to even the two states' vulnerability in this regard, which is how the recent statement by the Israeli Finance Minister, who said that Iran is working on intercontinental ballistic missiles, should be perceived. The Minister stressed that Iran’s goal is to threaten the EU and the US as much to ‘wipe Israel from the face of the earth’.
However, it is still hard to believe that the US would seriously take a ‘nuclear Iran’ as a real threat to its home security. It is a geopolitical issue for Washington, while Tel-Aviv has to worry about its actual security. Therefore, it is quite possible that Israel would decide to implement military force against Iran, but not in order to destroy all the nuclear facilities on its own, but to get the US directly involved in a major war in the Middle East. Whether this war brings Israel any benefits in the long run remains to be seen. It definitely won’t be easy, and it would decrease US influence over the region, while the US is still the only power that can guarantee the existence of the Israeli state.
