The Israeli public still discusses the result of Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to the US and his meeting with President Obama. The meeting of the state leaders and their security advisors Yakov Amidror and Tom Donilon lasted an hour longer than it was supposed to. After that there was a dinner attended also by US State Secretary Hillary Clinton, Defence Minister Leon Panetta and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Martin Dempsey as well as the US Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro The main topic of this unprecedented discussion was the Iranian nuclear program. So after the meeting there are two main questions that the public wants answered: could Netanyahu persuade Obama that the current sanctions are insufficient? Did Obama convince Netanyahu that sanctions and diplomatic measures should have another chance for some time, and that it was too early for the use of force?
Because of the secrecy in which negotiations took place, there are no clear and explicit answer to these questions, although it is possible to make certain very reasonable assumptions.
According to informed sources, the meeting took place in a very friendly atmosphere. Tensions in the relationship between Netanyahu and Obama, who have never had a particular liking for each other, were now felt much less than during their previous summits. In their speeches before the meeting, and after it, both Netanyahu and Obama stressed that their opinions on the Iranian threat are not different. The differences relate to the measures to deal with it, as well as the timing.
The Americans continue to believe that diplomatic measures have not failed. Judging by the eloquent statements of the Israeli prime minister, Israel has a different opinion. Another thing should be taken into account: in comparison with the US, Israel's capability of inflicting damage to Iran's nuclear program is relatively limited. This is reflected in the fact that if nothing is done, then Iran will reach a certain "point of no return" whenan Israeli attack would not be able to affect anything. At the same time, the US will still have the resources to do something. This means that after this same "point of no return", Israel will have to completely rely on the goodwill of Washington.
This situation is unacceptable to Netanyahu, as he just told Obama. It is unclear whether the leaders were able to reach common ground on this "point" of timing and the appropriate action to take.
Whatever it was, Barack Obama expressed understanding of Israel's concern about Iran's nuclear program, and quite clearly stated his position on this issue during his speech to the Congress of the AIPAC (American-Israel Public Affairs Committee), which was attended by most of the leaders of the Jewish communities and organizations. The President emphasized the fact that the US is unshakable guarantor of Israeli security and the fact that the Jewish state has the sovereign right to defend itself. According to him, the relationships between the two countries are unbreakable.
After the meeting with Obama, Netanyahu said in a private conversation that the U.S. leader told him the same thing as during his speech before the members of AIPAC. Netanyahu, who came to Washington in a very decisive mood, at the beginning of the meeting gave Obama a scroll of "Megillah" (the biblical "Book of Esther"), thus hinting at a kind of transparent continuity between the current situation and the events of the past described in this book. He added: "Then, too, they were going to destroy the Jewish people."
The most important thing Netanyahu had to explain was that Israel is preparing for the worst-case scenario, namely the possibility of solving the problem with its own forces. Before the meeting he told reporters: "I have not yet made a decision to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, but we do not reject such a possibility in the future. Israel has a right to defend itself, and it is important that our country has always been able to protect itself on its own. I have the responsibility to ensure that Israel can remain the master of its destiny. Iran has decided to destroy Israel, and it is a well-developed policy. Their words and their deeds are the same. If the problem can be solved by diplomacy - excellent, but it is necessary to prepare for the worst-case scenario. The pressure on Iran increases, but the time is short." The Prime Minister expressed satisfaction with the fact that largely due to Israeli concerns, Iran's nuclear program, which is a threat to the whole world, is among the highest security priorities of the international community.
According to information from US sources, the prime minister did not put forward to Obama any specific requirements and terms. However, he outlined his vision of how a diplomatic solution should look: in particular, Iran should close the uranium-enrichment plants in Natanz and Pordoi, and send its stocks of uranium enriched to 3.5% abroad. These and other measures in the presence of close monitoring by the international community will ensure the termination of the Iranian military nuclear program.
In this context, it not surprising that Tehran will not accept these conditions. The Ayatollahs' regime attaches too much importance to the nuclear program and too much effort was spent on its development to suddenly give it up. In addition, Iran is used to the situation of serious international isolation and pressure. Realizing that the sanctions, especially in their current form, are not enough, Netanyahu tried to convince Americans that, along with diplomatic pressure, a real threat to use military force is necessary, otherwise there is no chance of influencing Iran. In recent weeks American officials, including the President, have stated that all the solutions to the problem, including the military one, are relevant. However, it did not sound very convincing and it was clear to everyone, including Iran, that no attack is planned, at least before the presidential elections in November. The future was even more problematic. Thus, precious time may well be missed. Perhaps of all the American officials the Minister of Defense Leon Panetta was the most specific, telling AIPAC: "If all options fail, we resort to the military ... we will act. Our goal is to prevent nuclear weapons falling into the hands of Iran." All is good, but Panetta did not mention a minimum deadline; moreover, such decisions are ultimately taken by the president, and, finally, it is generally unknown whether the current Minister will keep his post after the elections.
Netanyahu's Speech to the AIPAC Congress was held after his meeting with Obama and was also devoted to the Iranian problem. The Prime Minister again reminded of the inherent right of Israel to defend itself. "History has proven that those who say that the operation against Iranian nuclear facilities will do more harm than good are wrong and endanger the existence of the Jewish people." To confirm his words, Netanyahu showed the audience two letters sent by the Jewish Congress to the White House, back in 1944, in which the authors asked the Allies to bomb Auschwitz, in order to reduce the scale of the tragedy. The request was not met. "This is not 1944, and the American administration is different. You heard Obama's speech. I also want to emphasize that the Jewish people has also changed. We have our own country. It aims to protect the lives of Jews, and ensure the future of the Jewish people. That is why Israel must be able to confront any threat. We attach great importance to union between the two countries, but when it comes to protecting Israel, we must always remain masters of our destiny. "
Demonstrating the documents of the period of the Holocaust, Netanyahu asked American Jews not to repeat past mistakes. He hinted that even today we are persuaded to give a chance for sanctions that mean nothing, but if we go down this path, it may be too late. Putting the two situations, the past and the present, together the Prime Minister emphasized the seriousness with which he treats the subject.
Benjamin Netanyahu derided the Iranian statements, supported by some countries that Tehran's nuclear program is peaceful, or at least, there is no evidence of its military orientation: " Iran does everything possible in this direction. It enriches uranium, builds underground nuclear facilities, develops intercontinental ballistic missiles, the new centrifuges ... And all this to develop scientific medicine? If it looks like a duck, moves like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then what is it? It is a duck, and a nuclear one. It's time to let the world name this duck with its name... Iran accuses the U.S. of planning the September 11 attacks, it denies the Holocaust, calls for Israel's destruction and actx in this direction. If they behave like this without a nuclear bomb, what will happen when a nuclear bomb appears? In this case, Iran will become much more dangerous. "
Commenting on the results of the meeting, American commentators stressed that while Netanyahu has not received the "green light" to attack Iran, the general political situation is more about the "yellow light". Throughout this week, in private conversations, Netanyahu emphasized that the damage and casualties from the response of Iran and its allies, including even a rocket attack on Tel Aviv in response to a possible Israeli attack, would be absolutely incomparable with the consequences of Tehran getting nuclear weapons. In all these conversations, Netanyahu asked the rhetorical question: what is the cost of inaction in the case of Iran?
Peter Lyukimson, Israel. Exclusively for VK
