In recent times the world has witnessed marked aggravation at the nuclear crisis surrounding Iran. The expert community is seriously discussing the prospect of a military strike against Iran by Israel and the USA joining in. Despite the unreasonableness of military a settlement of the Iranian problem and unwillingness of Obama’s administration to be involved in another military venture, there are concerns that Israel will lose its temper at some point.
However, the only alternative for a military operation could be revival of negotiations within 5+1 format. The date and the place of their holding have been changed for several times, but now some certainty appears. The Supreme National Security Council of Iran confirms information on continuation of negotiations between Iran and 5+1 international mediators on the Iranian nuclear program on April 14th, RIA Novosti reports citing IRNA.
The first round of talks will be carried out in Istanbul, as it was agreed between the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of the IRI Saeed Jalili and the head of the European Union diplomacy Catherine Ashton. If sides agree on further consultations, the second round might be held in Bagdad.
Talks in Istanbul could be the last chance for peace and an element of deterrence of Israel. Considering some facts, Tehran understands it. Inkling of a compromise appears. Iran plans to enrich by 20% only a limited amount of uranium, the head of the National Atom Program of Iran Fereydun Abbasi told Press TV ahead of the talks. As soon as Iran gets sufficient amount of fuel for internal using, it reduces its production, “we even could shift to 3.5% enrichment only,” Abbasi said, according to Deutsce Welle. This partially enriched uranium will be stored and used at the research reactor in Tehran. As for uranium, which is enriched more than 20%, according to Abbasi, Iran has no intention to produce it, i.e. Tehran will have no arms uranium.
At the same time, Iran rejects any preconditions of talks and indicates that it won’t reject its nuclear program. The point is whether Iran can convince the IAEA in peaceful character of its nuclear program. Another intrigue is whether the West stays deaf to Tehran’s arguments. Die Welt reports that the Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Khamenei expressed readiness to reduce or even stop the process of enrichment of uranium in Fordo. Fordo is situated deep underground; it is the most alarming facility for the USA and Israel, because it cannot be reached even by the heaviest bombs. Iran expects alleviation of sanctions and demands guarantees of supply if fuel from abroad, which will be returned after processing. It is a guarantee that Tehran doesn’t use the material for developing a nuclear bomb.
Of course one of accelerators for continuation of the talks was sanctions against Iran. Yes, sanctions were not managed to destroy the regime from inside and made it reject the nuclear program in a short-term prospect. Another question is what price is paid for implementation of the program and whether Iran could turn into a regional hegemon in the context of international isolation. The answer is no, rather than yes. Even if Iran creates nuclear armament, it won’t turn it into a powerful regional power, but give only guarantees of security. Economic and political reasonableness of such policy is doubtful in a long-term prospect. Gradually launched sanctions by the West are pushing Iran to compromises. Prices are growing in the country. Insiders of Die Welt report that dissatisfaction is increasing not only among poor layers of the country’s population, but also among the middle class. Moreover, a new set of sanctions adopted by the US President last week throws the world into a dilemma: Iranian oil or economic contacts with the USA. It is notable that Reuters reports the major Chinese insurance company China P&I Club rejected insurance of Iranian tankers. The reason is American and European sanctions, an anonym from the company told the agency.
Not only Iran, but also the US are interested in settlement of the Iranian crisis peacefully. A military campaign against the IRI would be a serious challenge for the American army and for exhausted by Afghan and Iraqi operations economy. In this situation it is very important to find modus Vivendi under which mullah regime could maintain power without losing a prospect of improving positions in the region. In exchange of it the USA will try to minimize a counter-operation from Tehran against geopolitical initiatives by the USA in the Middle East and the Central Asia. Will a compromise be found during the coming negotiation round? There are indirect reasons for optimist. At least the parliamentary elections in the IRI have passed, and Ahmadinejad failed to win them. It means the Supreme Ayatollah could dare to meet the opponents halfway. First word is Tehran’s.
Orkhan Sattarov. Exclusively to VK
