Interview by Evgeniy Krishtalev, exclusively to ‘VK’
Parliamentary elections are due to be held in Armenia on May, 6. The coordinator of the Center of Central Asia, Caucasus, Ural and Povolzhye region Research enter under the Institute of Eastern Studies, Alexander Skakov told ‘VK’ corresponded about the possible outcome of the campaigning.
- What is your forecast for the development of Russian-Armenian relations after May, 6? Could it be subjected to some new kind of influence?
- I believe Russian-Armenian relations are stable, and the Armenian parliamentary elections can’t influence them in any noticeable way. All parties that have chances to get to the parliament, all the favourites of these elections have similar positions towards Russia and or two countries relations. This is a point of consensus between all forces, just like the Karabakh question. These questions are not a matter of serious discussion in the Armenian political society.
Nevertheless, the relations between Russia and Armenia are not something constant and unchangeable, they depend on a whole number of factors. But these factors are mostly related to foreign politics: the general situation around Armenia, the situation with Nagoarno-Karabakh, the relations with Iran, with Azerbaijan, the situation in Georgia, Turkey, etc. But there’s one thing that daunts me in our relations with Armenia: there’s a sense of stagnation. I don’t see any thought-through strategy, any models of future development. What will be happening in Armenia and on the Caucasus in general? What will be happening in the Near East? All these challenges are equally important for Russia and Armenia, and as strategic partners we should prepare our answers to these challenges together.
- Some say that different political forces of Armenia have different vectors of foreign politics preferences. For example, the ‘Prosperous Armenia’ party is said to be more inclined towards increasing the cooperation with Russia, while the ‘Heritage’ party is relatively pro-Western and is more inclined to develop the relations with the EU and hopes to walk away from intense cooperation with Russia changing it for multi-vectored policy. Are these suggestions correct and does Russia actually understands the whole spectrum of Armenian political forces and their preferences?
- Yes, of course there are some shades as far as Russia and Karabakh are concerned, but these are only shades. Any given influential political party in Armenia would implement the so-called ‘complementary’ policy if it comes to power. It means that it would try to balance between Russia and the West. And not only between these two, but also between Russia, the West and the South: they will have to take the factors of Iran, Turkey, the Arab world, etc. into account, the more so as all these regions have large Armenian diaspora communities.
- Armenian parliamentary elections are usually viewed as a sort of ‘test-drive’ of Armenian political leaders who plan to run for the presidential elections. Is it already possible to make some prognosis of who will become Armenian presidential candidates?
- I think it’s early to make any prognosis yet. First of all, the outcome of parliamentary elections is very important for such a prognosis, as well as the reaction of the Armenian society to the elections: will they be accepted as transparent and honest ones? If all is good, it’s one situation, if not so good – the consequences might be completely different. It is a serious test for the power in Armenia. The gap between the parliamentary and the presidential elections is much bigger in Armenia than it is in Russia, so it would not be proper to draw parallels here. Some new political coalition is likely to appear after the upcoming elections, at it will nourish some new bright political leaders. There are some new stars in Armenian political life now, but after the elections they will shine brighter. I think they will be worthy rivals of the acting Armenian president in future campaigning.
- Could you voice your prognosis of the parliamentary elections outcome please?
- I think all candidates could be divided into 4 ranks. First one includes unconditioned favourites of the campaigning. It is yet unknown how many of the parliamentary seats will they get exactly. But it is most likely that the ruling party would get the majority, as it always happens, as it has its resources.
There are two leaders of the campaigning: the ruling Republican party and the ‘Prosperous Armenia’ party that used to be a member of the ruling coalition but de facto left it.
Second rank includes only one party – it is the oppositional Armenian National Congress. It has good chances. Of course, their popularity decreased in these 2 years due to some mistakes they made, but their rating is still high, mostly due to the ‘protest’ part of the electorate. And it is also popular as it actually has no concrete ideology – and ironically the absence of ideology always helps with the ratings.
All the listed parties will definitely be in the new parliament. The Dashnak party is also very likely to get to the parliament, it has stable, though not numerous, pool of supporters.
Other parties, such as the ‘Heritage’, are on the verge of getting into the parliament, and all depends on the campaigning strategy they would choose. No one can be sure that it will get to the parliament, although I hope it will, for the sake of wider representation. But it is up to the Armenian people.
- Will Robert Kocharyan have any influence over the outcome of the parliamentary and the presidential elections?
- He is an ex-President, so yes, to a certain extent. But he is not a popular political figure, as any ex-president. I think he would try to influence the elections not directly, but via his partisans, like the ex-FM Vardan Oskanyan. Is Kocharyan an important political figure? Let’s not try to see what we want to see. We are possibly overestimating his importance due to his past achievements. His actual importance might be much lesser than we estimate it to be.
