By Susanna Petrosyan, exclusively to VK
The recent elections to the Armenian Parliament resulted in radical changes within the parliament’s structure. First of all, the radical opposition, the Armenian National Congress (ANC), is now present there. Among the MPs from other parties, including the ruling Republican Party and the ‘Prosperous Armenia’ coalition, the number of professional political experts increased considerably.
According to the speaker of the former parliament, Samvel Nikoyan, the new parliament’s composition provides an opportunity for creating a powerful opposition coalition. Political experts say that the new parliament will be less inert, but there are still some questions to be answered.
The ruling party got 69 of 131 mandates, and the coalition party ‘Land of law’ got 6. Experts predict that despite the big number of mandates the Republican Party got it will still create a new coalition with its most devoted ally – the ‘Land of law’. Experts also say that the latter will get 2 or 3 minister’s portfolios and that its head, Arthur Bagdasaryan will retain his position as the Secretary of Defense.
One could also foresee active cooperation between the two opposition parties – the ANC and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF).
The ANC got 7.1% of the votes, thus obtaining 7 seats. Some say that those who are disappointed in such an outcome have already started to leave the opposition coalition. For example, Aram Sarksyan , the head of the ‘Res publica’ party, which is the third in the ANC proportional list, has already given up his seat and promulgated his disagreement with the ANC position on a number of issues. Moreover, the head of the ANC, ex-President Levon Ter-Petrosyan, also gave up his seat, as he didn’t want to head such a small political faction. However, he stressed that this does not mean that he is giving up his political struggle.
Officially the ANC was defeated in these elections, but in fact the very fact of entering the parliament for a Congress that used to be a ‘street opposition’ is an achievement.
The most interesting post-election intrigue, however, was that of the ‘Prosperous Armenia’ party, which got 36 parliamentary seats. Would it enter the ruling coalition? The only scenario in which the ruling party would offer such a coalition to ‘Prosperous Armenia’ is if the leader of the latter, Gagik Tsukeryan, supports Serge Sarksyan as the presidential candidate in 2013. If the ‘Prosperous Armenia’ won’t become a part of the ruling coalitions its members-ministers might loose their positions in the government.
However, according the ‘Prosperous Armenia’ chairperson Vague Ovannisyan, his party does not need such a coalition and, moreover, it would come into conflict with political ethics. The ruling party itself hasn’t yet made the final decision on this issue. If the ‘Prosperous Armenia’ which got some 450,000 votes, enters the coalition, it would get new offices in the central and regional government, thus gaining access to administrative resources. On the other hand, a lot of people voted for the party seeing in it the only viable alternative to the ruling party, and it is obvious that the party’s electorate doesn’t see the two parties (the PPA and the RPA) getting together again. So the coalition might ruin the PPA’s electoral support.
If the ‘Prosperous Armenia’ does not join the ruling coalition it de facto becomes an opposition party, so it will have to cooperate with the ANC and the ARF. However, the majority of the ‘Prosperous Armenia’ MPs have never been in the opposition before and it is yet unclear whether they are ready for that. The opinions of competent experts differ on whether the PPA would join the ruling coalition or the opposition.
The PPA’s position is the key issue for the future of Armenian politics. And it is most likely that the final decision will be taken personally by the party’s leader.
