The Turkish-Syrian confrontation continues to escalate. Experts are now worrying about possible military conflict. The row was caused by the downing of a Turkish jet by Syrian forces on June 22. Turkey claims the incident occurred over international waters.
The first reaction from the Turkish authorities was fairly moderate. However, the country's position on the incident later changed dramatically, with the Turkish National Security Council saying that "Turkey will take all necessary steps in response to the tragedy."
Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdogan then said that the action was a "hostile act." "An unarmed vessel was downed in international waters. Our rage will be vehement," Erdogan said. "The Syrian forces did nothing to prevent the tragedy. It was a hostile act," he added.
In 2012, Syrian air forces violated Turkish air territory more than 100 times, the prime minister said, adding that no violence happened before June 22. "Now Turkey is ready to take all necessary steps in the framework of international legal standards," Erdogan said. "From now on, any provocation will be considered an act of aggression."
Following a statement by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan that the regime of Bashar al-Assad is a threat to the security of Turkey, a large quantity of Turkish military equipment massed on the border with Syria, Trend cited the Zaman newspaper as saying. About 30 units of military equipment of the Turkish army drew up to the border with Syria on June 28.
Then Turkey proposed creating a buffer zone on the border with Syria. To this end, Turkey has been pulling military equipment up to the border for several days, a senior official at the U.S. Department of Defense told Turkish Vatan newspaper. The official said that Turkey has also demanded NATO member countries to create a no-fly zone over Syria. In turn, an unnamed Turkish diplomat, directly engaged in Syrian crisis issue, confirmed that the creation of a no-fly zone over Syria is really being discussed.
Experts reacted to the news, saying that the creation of a no-fly zone would be the first stage of a military operation against the Syrian regime, as it was in Libya.
The Syrian response was immediate. On June 28, General Mustafa al-Sheikh, head of the Higher Military Council, an association of senior officers who defected from President Bashar al-Assad's forces, said tanks had assembled at the Infantry School near the village of Musalmieh, northeast of the city of Aleppo, 30 kms (19 miles) from the Turkish border.
"The tanks are now at the Infantry School. They're either preparing to move to the border to counter the Turkish deployment, or to attack the rebellious (Syrian) towns and villages in and around the border zone north of Aleppo," Sheikh told Reuters by telephone from the border. He said the tanks were mostly from the 17th Mechanised Division.
Maybe this is not the beginning of a new war, but the action definitely changes the situation within Syria's borders. The civil war continues and now 60 percent of the territory is believed to be controlled by the opposition forces, with 100 thousand military men joining the rebels.
In these circumstances, both pro-Assad and anti-Assad parties called upon Turkey and Syria not to provoke a military conflict. On June 29, the Islamic Republic's Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Ramin Mehmanparast, said Iran called on both Syria and Turkey to keep the situation under control, and to show some restraint, Fars reported. Speaking to Fars in an interview, Mehmanparast noted that the Islamic Republic's Foreign Ministry has called upon Turkey and Syria to ease tensions, and to cooperate.
"Syria is fighting against the Zionist regime," Mehmanparast said. "That is why many regional countries that support Israel's interests in the region are against Syria. They pressure Syria to cause destabilization." Mehmanparast noted that Iran tries to cooperate with all regional countries, no to allow outside powers to intervene and cause tensions in the region.
Knud Bartel, the head of the NATO military committee, also said that a military solution to the problem is unacceptable. The parties should try all diplomatic measures, he said.
In this situation, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon's statement that the Geneva talks will be crucial for the future of Syria seems very important. It's clear that Western countries will demand Assad's resignation. It's also quite clear that he won't surrender. The rebels probably won't surrender either. This means that a military operation seems likely.
By Orkhan Satarov.
