Is diplomacy powerless over Syria?

 

Kofi Annan has quit his post as the UN and Arab League envoy to Syria. Annan said that he doesn't believe that his peace plan can be implemented in Syria. That's quite understandable, he did not manage to secure a peaceful way out of the conflict and decided to resign. Before his resignation, however, Annan said that Bashar al-Assad would have to leave office sooner or later. In fact, it's obvious that it's not Annan who should be blamed for the debacle of the peace plan. Many contributed to this fiasco.

The 6-point peace plan was first published by the BBC. The plan stipulated:


-   to commit to work with the Envoy in an inclusive Syrian-led political process to address the legitimate aspirations and concerns of the Syrian people, and, to this end, commit to appoint an empowered interlocutor when invited to do so by the Envoy;

 -  to commit to stop the fighting and achieve urgently an effective United Nations supervised cessation of armed violence in all its forms by all parties to protect civilians and stabilise the country.

  -  to ensure timely provision of humanitarian assistance to all areas affected by the fighting, and to this end, as immediate steps, to accept and implement a daily two-hour humanitarian pause and to coordinate the exact time and modalities of the daily pause through an efficient mechanism, including at local level;

  -  to intensify the pace and scale of the release of arbitrarily detained persons, including especially vulnerable categories of persons, and persons involved in peaceful political activities, provide without delay through appropriate channels a list of all places in which such persons are being detained, immediately begin organizing access to such locations and through appropriate channels respond promptly to all written requests for information, access or release regarding such persons;

  -  to ensure freedom of movement throughout the country for journalists and a non-discriminatory visa policy for them;

  -  to respect freedom of association and the right to demonstrate peacefully as legally guaranteed.


Now it's clear that none of these provisions was implemented by the parties involved in the conflict. There are plenty of reasons for that. Some of these conditions were actually very hard to fulfil. For instance. the first condition, according to which the parties were supposed to act in the interests of the Syrian people. Of course, it's very hard to identify those interests. The interests of Syrian citizens, who belong to various religious and ethnic groups, differ greatly from one another.

Another reason is that only one party involved in the conflict is a united body, with which one can hold talks, and this is the Assad administration.

To be honest, one should admit that the Assad regime did not try to secure freedom of association and of protest, even though Assad signed the agreement sponsored by Kofi Annan. Al-Assad was saying one thing and doing quite the opposite.

At the same time, the Syrian opposition was also unable to reach an agreement with the authorities. The Free Syrian Army, for example, rejected the Annan peace plan, saying that it isn't calling for Assad's resignation and because of that it is unacceptable.

The opposition's radical stance may be explained by the interests of certain foreign powers that the rebels have to take into consideration. Turkey and the Saudi Arabia both supported the Syrian opposition and the rebels probably had to listen to their opinions.

The situation is very complicated, as Syrian society itself is complex. Split into several ethnic and religious groups and political factions, Syria cannot be united by the idea of overthrowing al-Assad.

The Syrian president himself made his position perfectly clear, showing that he would never resign. Assad's stance predestined the debacle of the Annan peace plan for Syria. Al-Assad had a chance to be so obstinate only because of Russia's and China's position. That is why his resignation seems unlikely even now. Moreover, al-Assad is a leader of a certain clan, which may not allow him to hand over power.

The debacle of the peace plan was obvious long ago, now it's simply being stated once again. There is now no place of law and order  in Syria. It's clear that the parties will continue to fight bitterly, as they do not trust each other enough to surrender.


By Orkhan Sattarov. Exclusively to VK

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