Russia launches projects of stability in the Caucasus. Part 2

Alexei Vlasov, editor-in-chief of VK, spoke to Igor Panarin on the domestic political situation in Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia, as well as the factors that influence the stability in the South Caucasus.

Continuance

Panarin: A year ago, in the studio we discussed not only the problems of Georgia, but also the four-year armed conflict in the Caucasus; it is the problem of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Now elections in Georgia are about to be held. First, the situation in Georgia is quite complicated. The question is whether the current regime of Saakashvili will be in power, or maybe it will be dismantled, and we should expect for some kind of internal political turmoil?

Vlasov: I think that in the short term it will be in power. This is my assessment.

Panarin: This is an important point of view, because there are different opinions.

Vlasov: Bidzina Ivanishvili is a serious competitor both in the parliamentary opposition and as a candidate who is able to unite the opposition. But there are also two things. First: he is always put a spoke in the wheel, that is, everything is done in order to discredit the oligarch.

Panarin: So is the campaign launched?

Vlasov: It is in full swing. This is an internal matter of the advisers of Ivanishvili, but there is too much populism. He tries to beat Saakashvili in his field. Technologically, it's unbelievable. He has his own media channels - it is good. All the professionals in the field of information warfare consider this to be the worst of all the moves that can only be made.

Panarin: Is it already made?

Vlasov: It has in fact been made, and the populism of Ivanishvili this spreading in different social strata is widely perceived as Saakashvili without Saakashvili.

Panarin: Okay, that is, in fact, he is Saakashvili-2.

Vlasov: And in this case, is there any choice?

Panarin: That is, he does not offer any model, does he?

Vlasov: He believes that with Saakashvili Georgia chooses a wrong way; this way, sooner or later, will lead to the collapse of the country, which, in my view, is close to reality. But then we must also show an alternative. Very strong move on the part of Saakashvili is the appointment of a new prime minister, Vano Merabishvili. He is one of the most popular politicians in Georgia. Of course, he concedes tothe patriarch. But, generally, he is unrivaled. Yes, a lot of Georgians hate him. They believe that he has rigidly treated a lot of people who have been kicked out.

He's a very tough politician. He reformed the MIA and cleaned the "Augean stables" which were there before 2007-2008. By the way, he's one of the few people who questioned the action in August 2008 at the historic meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers of Georgia.

Panarin: That is, is he quite reasonable?

Vlasov: I would say he is pragmatic.

Panarin: Did he understand that there were no prospects?

Vlasov: I do not know the psychology of his decision making, but, apparently, he believed that not everything was counted, and he was right.

Panarin: Now let us move away from the internal Georgian problem to the problem of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. At the History Faculty of Moscow State University you studied post-Soviet global problems for a long time. Now, as far as I know, you want to focus on the Caucasus. Why do you want to do this? Is the reason for it your love of the Caucasus or the study of the dynamics of weak links of post-Soviet space?

Vlasov: Indeed, it is about creating a non-profit partnership – the Center of Political Studies "North-South", which will develop public relations with the countries of the South Caucasus.

Panarin: Are we talking about social, cultural ties?

Vlasov: That’s right. This is a humanitarian, expert project. Of course, we in Russia are concerned about the attempts by external actors to create problems for Russian businesses and Russian universities in the South Caucasus area. In order to develop our strategy, we need the support of the public; that is, our policy in the South Caucasus should be a public project.

Panarin: It should be a common project.

Vlasov: Absolutely. Nongovernmental diplomacy must evolve, and one of the missions, one of the challenges posed by the Center of Political Studies is doing this work. Returning to the topic you raised, I have to say that South Ossetia and Abkhazia had a difficult year.

Panarin: It was very difficult. A year ago, we predicted the number of risks. It is a pity that decision-makers did not listen carefully to us and did not learn anything. Of course, the year was very difficult, and in this sense, which conclusions do we have to draw in order to prevent further collapses?

Vlasov: It is unacceptable that officials from various agencies fight at the international arena.

Panarin: Do you mean domestic officials?

Vlasov: Yes. This is not serious. There can be a mistake. But if you work for a general idea, strategy, it is unacceptable to do such things in a public space.

Panarin: If we look at the situation, it is still relatively stable at the moment. Can it be said that the statehood of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is not in danger, or there are some threats to it?

Vlasov: There are some risks, but they will be seen, most likely, during the electoral period. If I am not mistaken, the parliamentary elections in Ossetia will be in 2014, and I think they will not be easy.

Panarin: Will they be difficult against the backdrop of the previous difficult period?

Vlasov: It is very important that the head of South Ossetia, Tibilov, is taking the right steps.

Panarin: Does he balance the situation?

Vlasov: He balances basing on the former opposition and not completely removing a part of the people from the surrounding of the former President Kokoity from the political game. I know that one of the presidential candidates, Bibilov, has started a new party project. It is not necessary to stop people.

Panarin: So did the head of state find the direction which is relatively right?

Vlasov: Yes, and it must be supported; this should not cause problems between different offices.

Panarin: Let's return to Abkhazia. There was also a rather difficult situation. The Sochi Olympics is coming, the term is relatively small, and the security and stability in Abkhazia is important.

Vlasov: Our partners from Sukhumi say that, in general, the situation is complicated, but it is rather stable. After the attempt at Ankvab it was brought under control. The apparent risk is that there may be a confrontation between the legislative and executive power in the republic.

Panarin: Can it occur inside the Abkhaz political space?

Vlasov: This is a system; by the way, I see some evidence of its maturity in this.

Panarin: On the one hand, this is a positive indicator that each of the branches of government is developing its own interests.

Vlasov: This is an opportunity for more effective competition of the branches and for their evolution, but this is also a risk.

Panarin: It is the risk of losing the control over the situation.

Vlasov: The Caucasian political mentality is a little bit different than, say, Russian or Ukrainian.