The parliamentary elections in Georgia have already been called “an informal referendum on the national future of the country.” During Mikhail Saakashvili’s term he had never faced such a well-organized and generously-financed opposition, whose leader promised real democratic reforms and normalization of relations with Russia. Tbilisi accuses the billionaire of being supported by the Kremlin and using his capital to buy supporters. Nevertheless, Ivanishvili is really a preferable figure for Moscow from the point of view of restoring relations. People in Georgia are also enthusiastic about the idea of normalizing relations. If the opposition wins the elections, it will mean a peaceful change of regime in Georgia. VK asked experts who follow the situation in Georgia about possible developments.
Andrey Areshev, expert of the Center on Central Asia and Caucasus Studies at the Oriental Sciences Institute of the RAS
I don’t exclude a confrontational scenario developing. At least now that we can see that Georgian Dream is the leader in the elections, and its supporters have already gathered on the central squares of Tbilisi and begun celebrating victory. In this situation, any statement by the Central Electoral Committee about other results will face rejection. Of course, situations involving clashes might take place, but I don’t think politicians of the ruling party will be as firm as they used to be several years ago. On the one hand, society’s expectations and social views have changed dramatically. Especially after the broadcast of the video from the Gldan prison. The police in Tbilisi and some other regions won’t support the regime in such a consolidated way, especially in illegal actions aimed at holding on to power by non-constitutional methods. I hope the UNM won’t try to hold on to power in case of failure at the elections.
The representatives of Georgian Dream announce pragmatic reasonable things about the necessity of the Russian market for agricultural production, on establishing some diplomatic contacts. It might construct a basis for a dialogue, especially if Bidzina Ivanishvili becomes the new prime minister. Russian-Georgian relations will benefit from it, i.e. peace and stability in the Caucasus will benefit too.
Alexander Karavayev, deputy general director of the Information Analysis Center of MSU
It is difficult to say who will win. Today we can speak about the possibility of an active scenario in Tbilisi, considering the fact that residents of the capital mostly voted for Georgian Dream of Ivanishvili. And Saakashvili’s supporters admit it. Various organizations which conducted polls give different figures, but the tendency is common – they mark the victory of Ivanishvili’s coalition in the proportional list. This tendency forecasts that Georgia is hardly likely to experience events comparable to the rose revolution in the autumn of 2003. Mikhail Saakashvili officially admitted that in proportional lists his party was defeated by the opposition. However, the results of elections in one-mandate districts might change the situation. The ruling party tries to provide fair processing of votes, even though the results are not in its favor.
Therefore, the elections demonstrate that Georgia has a democracy, even though it is not perfect. The opposition will definitely gain a majority in the new Georgian parliament. But it is too early to speak about full victory because of the absence of representation in one-candidate districts. The province voted for the ruling party for various reasons. Of course the scandal with the prisoners influenced the UNM negatively. Saakashvili tried to take strict steps to diminish the damage, but he failed to eliminate it. The results of the elections showed that people don’t believe in “Moscow’s provocations” any more. These are the results of the parliamentary campaign.
