Author: Interview by Susanna Petrosyan, exclusive to VK
A former senior advisor to the Armenian president on national security, Ashot Manucharyan, answers the questions of VK about the situation in Armenian internal policy on the eve of elections.
VK: The presidential electoral campaign is approaching. How would you describe the political landscape of Armenia?
AM: If politics mean a certain understanding of society's structure and the ways that lead to it, politics do not exist in Armenia. Instead of parties we have structures that pursue their personal or group interests. The victory or defeat of any of these powers does not change the life of the society. Armenian political life is centered around intrigues and not ideas.
VK: What in your opinion are the reasons for the lack of unity in the opposition? How plausible is the appearance of a united opposition candidate in the upcoming elections?
AM: In no country does the opposition unite, opposition forces are always different. The problem is that there are no ideas. The opposition has absolutely no ideology, like the ruling groups, and like them has nothing to offer the country. The lack of unity is connected to the lack of a unifying idea, unlike in 2008 when there was an idea of constitutional order. This was the aim that united 18 opposition parties that supported one candidate – Levon Ter-Petrosyan. But the previous ideas have been worked through. The division of powers, market economy and the development of democracy does not sound persuasive to the people and simply does not work today. And there are no new milestones. It is necessary to note that the lack of a unifying idea transformed the opposition, it became worse than it was 4-5 years ago. Today every opposition force wants to get into power by itself and to get its piece of the cake. Thus, in 2008 the ANC did not get into power but it later used the atmosphere of the protests to get seats in the National Assembly. Ordinary people, however, felt that the opposition had made a compromise and solved the problem of deputy mandates because of the protests. So to say, the ANC solved its own problems instead of solving the problems of the people. In addition, the structure of opposition does not correspond to our reality, does not express the interests of particular social groups. Armenian society is not as fragmented as the Armenian opposition.
VK: How would you describe the situation inside the ruling group? Four months before the presidential elections, some representatives of the ruling Republican party are confident that the current president will win the elections. How would you estimate the chances of Serzh Sargsyan?
AM: The apparent strength of the ruling power is based on the weakness outside the power structures and the absence of severe social challenges. In these respects Armenia is not very different from the other post-Soviet countries. It is close to us and it is easier to see this weakness. As for the chances of Serzh Sargsyan, they are good, taking into account that there are no challenges. I do not, however, exclude that in a community like ours these challenges might appear,both from inside or from outside. The weakness of the government and civil society make the country a polygon for different powers, including those from abroad. At any moment that external power can provoke any process, including direct mass action.
VK: Does this mean that at the coming presidential elections Armenia can be influenced from abroad?
AM: Indeed, even more so, the external factor will dominate. Armenia, as most countries of the post-Soviet space, is under a serious external influence, or basically under foreign rule. The UK and the US reached particular results in this field and increase their influence in Armenia to imperatives. They are opposed by Russia, which is acting way less effectively, and keeps losing its influence: there are basically no more pro-Russian forces in Armenia. The West, that as I said acts more successfully than Russia, uses very cunning means – for instance, the political power X seems to be pro-Russian, but in fact is pro-Western. Some political powers give oaths of loyalty to Russia but in fact look to the West. This scheme works in Armenia very well. But the West is afraid of direct confrontation with Russia and tries to show that Russian interests are kept. They are very cunning in this respect. In Georgia the West works directly, in Armenia it is a more sophisticated work. Because Russia sees Armenia as its sphere of interest, and any rude action can provoke a touchy reaction from Russia, and the West does not want that.
VK: You said that the external factor will dominate the elections. What will be the role of the masses in the political processes?
AM: If the popular masses rise, it will be a problem for both the internal and external players. Then the external powers will have to consider it and make the controlled forces work to answer the interests of the people. If the people rise, they alone will decide.
VK: You mentioned the degradation of the political field. What will be the next stage? Can we expect this after the presidential elections?
AM: The next stage will be the formation of a new, real political field. Now we are at the stage of the “merging” of the existing political field. In fact, as I said, it is not even political, because the parties work like corporations. This form is coming to an end. It is not connected to the elections. It is important to note that the entire process, including the decrease of the authority of the current political powers, their degradation, is very rapid. This process is based on value changes in the political structures and society. The basic aim of the degrading system is a “golden calf. The people are waiting for a power that will lead them beyond this life organization. Public initiatives could become such a power, for instance the initiative of Sardarapat, that is acquiring the character of a political force, because there are more ideas behind it than behind the political parties.
