David Stepanyan, Yerevan, exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
As we approach the 18th of February 2013, the election landscape in Armenia is starting to clear up. The main intrigue on the eve of the presidential election was the position of the "Prosperous Armenia" Party (PAP). However, the Secretary of the PAP faction, Naira Zohrabyan, announced recently that the party had begun a series of political consultations on the possible consolidation of political forces around the idea of switching to a parliamentary form of government, which will increase the role of political forces in the country. There was already a meeting between representatives of the PAP - Vardan Oskanyan, Naira Zohrabyan - and representatives of the ARF - Armen Rustamyan and Arsen Ambartsumyan - as well as between the PAP and the "Heritage" party. A meeting with representatives of the Armenian National Congress (ANC) is expected in the near future.
According to Zagrobyan, having their own candidate at the elections is a milestone for the PAP. The party has already started meetings with voters in all regions of the country, after which the political council is going to solve the issue of the PAP's participation in the election. In the personal opinion of Zagrobyan, if the party decides to run in the elections with its own candidate, it must be PAP leader Gagik Tsarukyan.
Party authorities immediately responded to the statement of the PAP. The spokesman for the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), Deputy Speaker Eduard Sharmazanov, described the PAP's statement on the need to move from a presidential system to a parliamentary system as "a primitive political move." The Deputy Speaker also threw a stone in the garden of the former president of Armenia (and, according to rumours, the shadow leader of the PAP), Robert Kocharyan. According to Sharmazanov, it would be politically short-sighted not to see that behind the people who make statements about a sudden transition to a parliamentary system, there are those "who are not able to come to power openly." The parliamentary group secretary of the RPA, Hovhannes Sahakyan, does not fully agree with the opinion of their partner party, believing that the intention of the Prosperous Armenia Party to begin consultations on the idea of transition to a parliamentary system completely fits into the framework of the PAP's campaign. Sahakyan generally does not see the position articulated by the PAP as the " handwriting" of the former president Robert Kocharyan, whose political ambitions nobody doubts, but in fact no secret handwriting at all.
The RPA's grievances are obvious. Back in February 2011, the PAP with the Republicans and the "Rule of Law" party signed a letter of support for the candidate Serzh Sargsyan. A few days ago the Republicans officially announced their intention to participate in the elections with the current head of state. But the PAP is hesitating, provoking the righteous anger of opponents. If the PAP announced its intention to begin consultations on the issue of consolidation around a single presidential candidate in the person of Gagik Tsarukyan, it would look prosaic and predictable. So the party went the other way, stating the need to unite not around a political heavyweight but around a particular idea - the idea of unification of political forces to go to a 100% proportional election system and, accordingly, a parliamentary form of government.
41 MPs of the 131-member parliament are elected in a first-past-the-post system, while the other 90 are lected proportionally. Back in May, during the parliamentary elections, the PAP carefully avoided joining the initiative of the ARF on the move to 100-percent proportional system. Given that the views of PAP in the last few months have not change dramatically, someone must have helped to determine the election strategy. Who could this be? Gagik Tsarukyan, Robert Kocharian, or helpers from Moscow?
An expert at the Armenian Center for Political and International Studies, Ruben Mehrabyan, believes that the intention of the PAP to start consultations on the idea of a transition to a parliamentary system of government is a clearly visible "Kocharyan track", because the PAP has always been the mouthpiece of Kocharyan, who created this political force. Mehrabyan does not believe that this proposal means a reluctance to support the candidacy of Serzh Sargsyan, because if the PAP and the ruling party agree on Sargsyan's candidacy, the new initiative will not interfere with it. "In reality, the PAP is trying to determine their political prospects, securing success in the parliamentary elections and ensuring a decent political future. In this light, this initiative should be seen only as an element of political bargaining between the PAP and the Republican Party," Mehrabyan told VK.
This view has found justification in the form of statements by the leader of "National Accord", Aram Harutyunyan, considered an ally of Robert Kocharyan. Harutyunyan said that in the elections the PAP must put forward its own candidate, otherwise the party will sing its "swansong." According to him, the nomination will create significant problems for the authorities. At the same time, Harutyunyan said that in the case of participation in the presidential race, Robert Kocharyan will be its undisputed favourite.
It can be concluded that the recent initiative of the PAP is seen as"Kocharyan's handwriting", which many in Armenia rightly feared. It seems that the second president of the opposition decided to consolidate the field around the PAP, since only in this case can the candidate of that party appear to have any chance of competing with the
Republicans, or more precisely, from an administrative colossus. Given that the nomination of Tsarukyan and even Kocharyan could not serve as bait for the notorious consolidation, PAP offered not a candidate but an idea. This idea, of course, is not new, but good enough. And for its successful implementation in practice it requires effective consultations that will be acceptable to many political forces. It was a good choice, because this idea is supported by very different forces - the ANC, "Heritage" and "Dashnaktsutiun".
After a successful consultation, capable of consolidating the leading opposition forces, the PAP can begin to implement the second part of its plan - to bargain with the Republicans for a "political future" in the form of the greatest portions of the economic portfolios in the government.
Given that the administrative apparatus is in the hands of the Republicans, the chances of the PAP are virtually zero. But to create serious competition is certainly possible. Therefore, Serzh Sargsyan has to come to an agreement with the PAP if he wants to have calm elections. But it might be quite difficult for the republicans if the consultations go well. For this, Sargsyan and his team need to show resourcefulness and give large chunks of economic and political influence to the PAP. These belong to the Republican Party bosses and by sharing them Sargsyan and his entourage will inevitably have to share power as well. That is why in the near future the Republicans will continue to lay "bombs" for the PAP and its "ideas" of consultations. The price that the ruling party will have to pay its competitors so that they recognize the results of the elections is too high Today, it all depends on how successful the "constructive idea" of the PAP would be and on the subversive activities of the Republicans. Attempts by Vardan Oskanyan and "attacks" on certain members of the PAP, who were reminded of their “dark pasts”, so far speak for the success of the Republicans. Accordingly, the success of the PAP's ideas directly depends on the extent to which these ideas are supported by third players in the form of the ANC, the ARF and "Heritage".
The statement of "Prosperous Armenia" does not mean that the party is not going to go to the presidential elections in consensus with the ruling Republican Party. The main thing that is required is not even a refusal to participate in the elections. The party, of course, can take part in them, most likely in the person of Gagik Tsarukyan. The PAP needs to lose the election and to recognize the results. Fortunately, "democracy" is never superfluous, especially in the case of "Republican-Prosperous" Armenia.
